Acceleration of #climatechange is taking place due to our failure to cut increasing CO2 emissions.

Any impact of Arctic coastal #permafrost erosion on the global #climate through increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations until 2100 is comparatively small.

Yet, this new #EarthSystemModel component allows for a better quantification of the carbon budget, necessary for carbon monitoring under #decarbonisation .

Read more in this press release 👇
https://www.uni-hamburg.de/en/newsroom/presse/2024/pm40.html
#ilyinaScience

In years to come, the Arctic Ocean will absorb less CO2 than expected

In a #newpaper from my group, led by David Nielsen, we incorporated coastal permafrost as a new component of an #EarthSystemModel.

This allowed us to quantify that #coastal #permafrost erosion weakens the Arctic Ocean #CO2 uptake from the atmosphere by 7-14%.

This exerts a positive biogeochemical feedback on #climate, increasing atmospheric CO2 by 1–2 TgC yr−1 per °C of increase in global surface air temperature.

Find out more here👇
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02074-3
#ilyinaScience

Reduced Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake due to coastal permafrost erosion - Nature Climate Change

The rate of Arctic coastal permafrost erosion is predicted to increase up to 3 times by 2100. Here the authors model how organic matter released from coastal permafrost erosion will reduce the CO2 sink capacity of the Arctic Ocean and lead to positive feedbacks on climate.

Nature

Coastal ocean might be a more efficient #CO2 sink than the open #ocean as we found in our new paper led by Moritz Mathis. Find out why here👇
https://nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01956-w

Spoiler: we show that the increase in #CoastalOcean #CO2uptake during the 20th century was primarily driven by biological responses to climate-induced circulation changes (36%) and increasing riverine nutrient loads (23%), together exceeding the ocean CO2 solubility pump (41%).
@hereon
#ilyinaScience

Have a look at our simulation of the air-sea #CO2 flux and surface wind speed in a high-resolution #EarthSystemModel model ICON 👇
https://youtu.be/63NZSPjxv6w

I find September particularly fascinating in this animation. A hurricane in the Western Atlantic entirely messes up the CO2 flux. Here, the immediate effect is that the hurricane enhances the outgassing of CO2. Behind it, the flux swaps the sign and there is uptake of CO2.

#ilyinaScience

Air-sea CO2 flux and surface wind speed simulated with high-resolution HAMOCC@ICON

YouTube

Can we predict if atmospheric CO2 grows faster or slower than what is expected from emissions' growth?

Yes, by assimilating observational data into an #ESM, we gain a predictive skill of 5 years for the air–sea CO2 flux, and 2 years for the air–land CO2 flux and atmospheric carbon growth rate.

Find out more on how we predict the global carbon cycle and evaluate modeled atmospheric CO2 in our new study
https://mas.to/@HongmeiLi/109834343353355699

by @HongmeiLi @MPI_Meteo

https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/101/2023/

#ilyinaScience

Hongmei Li (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image Check out our new study on "reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model" https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/101/2023/. This is the first study reconstructing and predicting the global carbon budget within a closed Earth system enabling prognostic atmospheric CO2. The evolution of reconstructed CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is close to the data-based assessments; predictions further show high confidence in predicting CO2 changes in the next year.

mas.to

When we start cutting CO2 emissions, when will atmospheric CO2 concentration go down?

On decadal timescales, the effect of emission changes is masked by natural climate variability modes (like El Niño-Southern Oscillation).

We show that natural variability disguises attribution of reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth to CO₂ mitigation for up to a decade.

Atmospheric CO2 can even rise faster despite falling emissions (~30% chance).

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc443

#ilyinaScience

Our paper on the application of component concurrency allowing to improve the scalability of simulations and reduce the real-runtime for biogeochemical tracers' computation is now published 🎉

https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/9157/2022/

Learn more why we find it exciting:
https://mas.to/@TatianaIlyina/109471706342238360

@MPI_Meteo

#ilyinaScience

Improving scalability of Earth system models through coarse-grained component concurrency – a case study with the ICON v2.6.5 modelling system

Abstract. In the era of exascale computing, machines with unprecedented computing power are available. Making efficient use of these massively parallel machines, with millions of cores, presents a new challenge. Multi-level and multi-dimensional parallelism will be needed to meet this challenge. Coarse-grained component concurrency provides an additional parallelism dimension that complements typically used parallelization methods such as domain decomposition and loop-level shared-memory approaches. While these parallelization methods are data-parallel techniques, and they decompose the data space, component concurrency is a function-parallel technique, and it decomposes the algorithmic space. This additional dimension of parallelism allows us to extend scalability beyond the limits set by established parallelization techniques. It also offers a way to maintain performance (by using more compute power) when the model complexity is increased by adding components, such as biogeochemistry or ice sheet models. Furthermore, concurrency allows each component to run on different hardware, thus leveraging the usage of heterogeneous hardware configurations. In this work we study the characteristics of component concurrency and analyse its behaviour in a general context. The analysis shows that component concurrency increases the “parallel workload”, improving the scalability under certain conditions. These generic considerations are complemented by an analysis of a specific case, namely the coarse-grained concurrency in the multi-level parallelism context of two components of the ICON modelling system: the ICON ocean model ICON-O and the marine biogeochemistry model HAMOCC. The additional computational cost incurred by the biogeochemistry module is about 3 times that of the ICON-O ocean stand alone model, and data parallelization techniques (domain decomposition and loop-level shared-memory parallelization) present a scaling limit that impedes the computational performance of the combined ICON-O–HAMOCC model. Scaling experiments, with and without concurrency, show that component concurrency extends the scaling, in cases doubling the parallel efficiency. The experiments' scaling results are in agreement with the theoretical analysis.

With my group, I study a #CDR method of artificially increasing ocean C-sink by adding alkalinity.

In an #EarthSystemModel
large amounts of alkalinity boost the oceans' capacity to absorb CO2.
This comes at a price of unprecedented perturbations in #biogeochemistry with unknown implications for marine life.

Learn more in our papers
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057981
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068576
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077847
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000620
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.624075
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001634

#ilyinaScience

@derp_code
yep, thinking of introducing a hashtag like #ilyinaScience and add it in my toots 😆

How does Earth breathe CO2 under different #ClimateChange scenarios?

Have a look at this visualization showing seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 modulated by anthropogenic emissions and the strength of the ocean and land carbon sinks.

Computed with an #EarthSystemModel #MPI-ESM.
Details at #DKRZ Gallery:
https://www.dkrz.de/en/communication/galerie/Vis/esm/seasonal-variations-of-co2-under-climate-change

#ilyinaScience

Seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 concentration under climate change

In order to understand how the climate change induced by different CO2 emission scenarios affects carbon-climate feedbacks and the resulting atmospheric CO2 concentration growth, we extended the simulations that have been carried out within the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).

DKRZ