Friedrich Merz says that he will work with the SPD to change the election laws after 23 constituency winners are unable to take a seat. 18 of those 23 are from the CDU/CSU.

The rule was put in place after the last election in response to a Bundestag that was larger than at any point since reunification, with 137 overhang and balance seats needed to ensure proportionality. If yesterday's election had been contested under the old system, 53 overhang and balance seats would have been required.

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23 candidates who won the most first-votes in their constituencies will not be able to take their seats, because there are not enough second-votes for their respective parties in their respective states.

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🇩🇪
RESULTS OF GERMAN ELECTION 2025

RIGHT: 208
LEFT: 206
KREMLIN: 216

Democratic countries can still form a government, but the Kremlin controls a blocking minority: Germany can't change the constitution without its approval.

😮

COMPARED TO 2021

RIGHT: -81 seats
LEFT: -119 seats
KREMLIN: +94 seats

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Here are the final seat figures, with all 299 constituencies declared.

The Grand Coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD looks like the only credible coalition option if the anti-AfD "firewall" is to be maintained.

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With 23 constituencies to declare, this is where I'm going to call it tonight.

Though the BSW is currently above 5%, I don't think they will finish there, as most of the constituencies still outstanding are West German and it's in East Germany where they've done well.

The "Grand Coalition" is the only realistic coalition coming out of this election. Friedrich Merz says he wants it done by Easter. We'll see if that can happen.

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STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 00:00 CET:

234 down, 65 to go, and the "Grand Coalition" is looking more and more likely as more and more results come in.

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The AfD has topped the poll in all five states in the former East Germany.

But they've not managed to finish on top in any former West German state, while in Berlin, they're all the way back in fifth place.

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STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 23:30 CET:

We have two-thirds of the results in now, and it still looks like a two-party coalition is the most likely outcome.

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STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 23:00 CET:

With more than half of constituencies now declared, it looks like a two-party Grand Coalition will remain the most likely possibility.

The FDP looks like it's not going to make it into the Bundestag, and I think the BSW will finish just short as well (though that one is less certain).

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STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 22:30 CET:

It still looks like the Union and the SPD could form a two-party coalition, but there are still a lot of results to come in and plenty of time for the FDP or BSW to hit 5%.

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