RE: https://mathstodon.xyz/@SomeBird/115997957815853478

Welp, I correctly predicted the (first) Event™️ to occur at a 90-day mark (yes, including the type of Event™️) by switching my approach from an optimization problem (no one was optimizing shit in that system😆) to a hybrid agent-based discrete event simulation (DES) with:
1. Three heterogeneous agents, each with a distinct decision architecture
2. Asymmetric information partitions
3. Continuous accumulator variables with stochastic threshold crossings
4. Event rates that are functions of both current state and path history
5. Exogenous scheduled events
6. Secret sauce™️

Stay fine-tuned for another update in 90 days.

#mathematics #OperationsResearch #discreteeventsimulation #stochastic #zeek #appliedmathematics

#introduction

I'm finishing my PhD in #SystemsEngineering & #OperationsResearch, specializing in #RiskAnalysis & #DiscreteEventSimulation, primarily applied to #EmergencyDepartment #PatientFlow. I collaborate with Children's National Hospital in DC and adjunct at #GWU.

(I have a B.S. in Architecture from #MIT, where I was an EMT. I worked in hospital planning after completing my MPH with a concentration in #HealthServices / Health Policy & Management.)

#HarmReduction & #EmergencyMedicine fan

Ejemplo DEVS: EF-P (4/4)

https://fediverse.tv/videos/watch/37d96b6f-a3fc-42d3-8806-d2dfde6773ea