Ask A Genius 1345: The Future of Family: Declining Birthrates, Artificial Wombs, and Elon Musk’s Reproductive Legacy
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/04/07
Rick Rosner: Look at the population curve. It is not heading toward zero anytime in the next 800 years. If we have that long to adapt, it is not a crisis—or at least not an existential one. You asked whether we’ll see more healthy single-parent families, adopted kids, and similar setups—especially with the rise of automation.
Not exactly. We will see a broader mix of arrangements alongside traditional families. People are already having fewer children—global fertility rates have dropped from around 5 in 1950 to below 2.5 today. In many developed countries, it is well below replacement level. Nuclear families will continue, but we will also see cohabiting couples without kids, communal parenting, co-parenting without romance, and polyamorous or asexual family structures.
These alternatives will seem less unusual over time. I watched the start of a bad sci-fi movie where no one gives birth anymore—babies are grown in synthetic egg-like pods. Ridiculous in presentation, but not far off conceptually. In 2017, researchers at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia developed an artificial womb that sustained premature lambs for weeks in a fluid-filled “biobag.” Ectogenesis—gestation outside the human body—is progressing. Japan and the Netherlands are both funding artificial womb research. So future generations may opt out of pregnancy entirely.
We will also see outlandish tech. If someone wants to avoid the physical cost of pregnancy, they might turn to full surrogacy, uterine transplants—which have already produced live births—or biotech solutions like bioprinted wombs. The biotech is not speculative—it is under active development.
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Kal-El, from Superman—they are grown, not born.
Rosner: Nicolas Cage named his son Kal-El. If he could grow a superkid in an artificial womb, he would. Elon Musk might too. He’s spoken about population collapse being a bigger threat than climate change.
With Musk, I am not sure if he wants all those kids or if he is just prolific—king of the “hot loads”—and indifferent to what happens after. He now has 11 publicly known children with three different women. He claims he’s helping to address “underpopulation.” Maybe that’s his logic. Maybe he just sees reproduction as an evolutionary obligation.
Still, based on his output, he’s probably a boxers guy. Keeps the swimmers active.
Let’s end it there.
Jacobsen: Thanks. See you tomorrow.
Rosner: Talk then.
Jacobsen: Most of my life. Bye.
Rosner: Bye. Thanks.
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#artificialWombs #decliningBirthrates #ElonMusk #familyPlanning #reproductiveTechnology
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Technologies shape who we are, how we organize our societies and how we relate to #nature. For example, #socialmedia challenges #democracy; #artificialintelligence raises the question of what is unique to humans; and the possibility of creating #artificialwombs may affect notions of #motherhood and #birth. Some have suggested that we address #globalwarming by engineering the #climate, but how does this impact our responsibility to future generations and our relation to nature?
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Technologies shape who we are, how we organize our societies and how we relate to nature. For example, social media challenges democracy; artificial intelligence raises the question of what is unique to humans; and the possibility to create artificial wombs may affect notions of motherhood and birth. Some have suggested that we address global warming by engineering the climate, but how does this impact our responsibility to future generations and our relation to nature? This book shows how technologies can be socially and conceptually disruptive and investigates how to come to terms with this disruptive potential.
Listening to the #Reason #podcast today (by sheer coincidence!):
“People are going to be really mad about the #ArtificialWombs, and there’s going to be a decade of attempts to outlaw that. It’s not just going to be the womb wars — we’re going to end up with the WOMB Act: the ‘Women Only Make Babies’ Act.”
https://reason.com/podcast/2023/05/30/banging-our-heads-on-the-debt-ceiling/
In vitro gametogenesis (expected to happen in 5–25 years) will give #women yet another tool to increase their reproductive options. (Not so much men — gay or straight — as a woman are still needed for gestation.)
Today, women don’t need a committed partner, or even a one-night stand. They can freeze their eggs and postpone maternity. They can get regular eggs from a donor for free (or the best ones paying money). They can get regular sperm from a donor for free (or the best one paying money; ie pick and choose a “father” online). They alone decide about abortion. They can have their partners raise a child that is not their own. They can give birth alone, leave “name of the father” blank on the form, and nobody even bothers to find out whether there might be an unwilling father out there, or questions the merits of deciding to raise a kid without a father.
Men can’t do any of that.
Talk about “reproductive rights”.
An artificial womb will the be biggest advance in favour of #men. It might be the great equalizer. Gestation will cease to be a burden, a risk, and a privilege exclusive to women. Imagine a single man becoming a father, and nobody even asking him “who’s the mother?” or “who donated the eggs?” (Sounds heartless, sad, creepy? It’s just what we have now, only with the sexes reversed.)
#ArtificialWombs are not expected to arrive any time soon, though.
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