Scratch Card Odds 9/10
With five tickets, the chance of at least one jackpot win is about 1 in 200,000. That’s not “unlikely”—that’s extreme. 📉
#ExtremeOdds #RiskAwareness #StatisticalThinking
View of The Legacy of Daniel Kahneman:

I had been meaning to write this piece, which I would call my statistically supported argument
- for more funding for research
- against funding mainly successful researchers, and
- against trying to optimize research funding allocation

https://masoudmim.github.io/blog/2025/diversify-funding/

#ResearchFunding #SciencePolicy #StatisticalThinking #AcademicEquity #ScienceFunding

Why More Beats Best | Masoud Masoumi

A statistical argument against supporting mainly successful researchers and optimizing research allocation

Seven Simple Questions for Policymakers and Decision Makers that apply to all social statistics:

1. How big? How much? How many?
2. Compared to what?
3. Why not a rate?
4. Per what? The diabolical denominator.
5. How were things defined, counted or measured?
6. What was taken into account (what was controlled for)? Is this a crude association?
7. What else should have been taken into account (controlled for)?

#Statistics #StatisticalThinking #DecisionMaking

Source: http://www.statlit.org/pdf/2022-Schield-SJIAOS.pdf

The Seven Unnatural Acts of Statistical Thinking acc. to Richard D. De Veaux and Paul F. Velleman

1. Think Critically.
2. Be Skeptical. Question authority and the current theory.
3. Think about variation rather than about center.
4. Focus on what we don’t know.
5. Perfect the Process. Our best conclusion is often a refined question.
6. Think about conditional probabilities and rare events.
7. Embrace vague concepts (Center, Outlier, Linear...).

#StatisticalThinking #StatisticalLiteracy