Mastodawn

4/
The commentary by @hildabast (https://web.archive.org/web/20250623150019/https://absolutelymaybe.plos.org/2024/05/05/scientific-uncertainty-isnt-a-justification-for-getting-things-seriously-wrong/) reflected on how "#ScientificUncertainty enables people to lead themselves, and others, astray" providing "a lot of space for bias to flourish"

Controlled experiments differ from the "messier" real life, but the commentary noted:

"Someone being prematurely very sure may convince others that they really know what they’re talking about. But they are at the mercy, then, of their biases. Pretending uncertainty is not there is a minefield"

Scientific Uncertainty Isn't a Justification for Getting Things Seriously Wrong - Absolutely Maybe

The authors got me thinking about the ways scientific uncertainty enables people to lead themselves, and others, astray. That wasnt what they

Absolutely Maybe

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#PeriodicTableHumor #STEMJokes #ChemistryFails #ScientificUncertainty

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Doug Bostrom Jun 18, 2024

"This paper traces the history of the IPCC’s use of DMDU [decision making under deep uncertainty] and explains the intersection with key IPCC concepts such as risk, scenarios, treatment of uncertainty, storylines and high-impact, low-likelihood outcomes, and both adaptation and climate resilient development pathways. The paper suggests how the IPCC might benefit from enhanced use of DMDU in its current (7th) assessment cycle."

#DMDU
#ScientificUncertainty

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1380054/full

The use of decision making under deep uncertainty in the IPCC

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) exists to provide policy-relevant assessments of the science related to climate change. As such, the IPCC has long grappled with characterizing and communicating uncertainty in its assessments. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) is a set of concepts, methods, and tools to inform decisions when there exist substantial and significant limitations on what is and can be known about policy-relevant questions. Over the last twenty-five years, the IPCC has drawn increasingly on DMDU concepts to more effectively include policy-relevant, but lower-confidence scientific information in its assessments. This paper traces the history of the IPCC’s use of DMDU and explains the intersection with key IPCC concepts such as risk, scenarios, treatment of uncertainty, storylines and high-impact, low-likelihood outcomes, and both adaptation and climate resilient development pathways. The paper suggests how the IPCC might benefit from enhanced use of DMDU in its current (7th) assessment cycle.

Frontiers

Doug Bostrom Feb 20, 2023

"Decision-makers are more likely to incorporate uncertainties in their adaptation decisions than suppress them or delay action, although the response is sensitive to the type of information sought and timeframes."

Important, because in nature adaptation is powered by mortality-- best avoided if possible.

Details currently held hostage by ransomware (commercial academic publishing system).

#ClimateAdaptation
#ScientificUncertainty
#ClimateChange

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-023-00189-x

Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation: a Systematic Review of Research Approaches and People’s Decision-Making - Current Climate Change Reports

Purpose of Review This review (1) describes the intersecting literature on climate change adaptation (CCA) and uncertainty (N= 562), and (2) synthesizes the findings of empirical studies about decision-maker uncertainty (n = 97). Recent Findings Uncertainty can be a barrier to adaptation, yet it is most often studied in relation to the scientific process, while uncertainties in people’s decision-making and their impact on CCA are less studied. Summary Despite the predominance of scientific uncertainties (52%), we see an upward-trend in studies of decision-making uncertainty (24%), and in combining natural and social sciences approaches (24%). Multiple sources of uncertainty influence CCA decisions besides climate trends, and their saliency and people’s responses vary depending on the role/function of the decision-maker and the timeframe of the decision. Concerns involve situational uncertainties, response options, and their consequences. Decision-makers are more likely to incorporate uncertainties in their adaptation decisions than suppress them or delay action, although the response is sensitive to the type of information sought and timeframes.

SpringerLink