An Association Test Based on Kernel-Based Neural Networks for Complex Genetic Association Analysis

The advent of artificial intelligence, especially the progress of deep neural networks, is expected to revolutionize genetic research and offer unprecedented potential to decode the complex relationships between genetic variants and disease phenotypes, which could mark a significant step toward improving our understanding of the disease etiology. While deep neural networks hold great promise for genetic association analysis, limited research has been focused on developing neural-network-based tests to dissect complex genotype-phenotype associations. This complexity arises from the opaque nature of neural networks and the absence of defined limiting distributions. We have previously developed a kernel-based neural network model (KNN) that synergizes the strengths of linear mixed models with conventional neural networks. KNN adopts a computationally efficient minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimator (MINQUE) algorithm and uses KNN structure to capture the complex relationship between large-scale sequencing data and a disease phenotype of interest. In the KNN framework, we introduce a MINQUE-based test to assess the joint association of genetic variants with the phenotype, which considers non-linear and non-additive effects and follows a mixture of chi-square distributions. We also construct two additional tests to evaluate and interpret linear and non-linear/non-additive genetic effects, including interaction effects. Our simulations show that our method consistently controls the type I error rate under various conditions and achieves greater power than a commonly used sequence kernel association test (SKAT), especially when involving non-linear and interaction effects. When applied to real data from the UK Biobank, our approach identified genes associated with hippocampal volume, which can be further replicated and evaluated for their role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease.

Ultimate Deconvolution for Multivariate Normal Means

Implements fast statistical algorithms for solving the multivariate normal means problem via empirical Bayes, building on the "Extreme Deconvolution" method <DOI:10.1214/10-AOAS439>.

recount3: uniformly processed RNA-seq

Combining Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Accurate risk stratification is key to reducing cancer morbidity through targeted screening and preventative interventions. Multiple breast cancer risk prediction models are used in clinical practice, and often provide a range of different predictions for the same patient. Integrating information from different models may improve the accuracy of predictions, which would be valuable for both clinicians and patients. BRCAPRO is a widely used model that predicts breast cancer risk based on detailed family history information. A major limitation of this model is that it does not consider non-genetic risk factors. To address this limitation, we expand BRCAPRO by combining it with another popular existing model, BCRAT (i.e., Gail), which uses a largely complementary set of risk factors, most of them non-genetic. We consider two approaches for combining BRCAPRO and BCRAT: (1) modifying the penetrance (age-specific probability of developing cancer given genotype) functions in BRCAPRO using relative hazard estimates from BCRAT, and (2) training an ensemble model that takes BRCAPRO and BCRAT predictions as input. Using both simulated data and data from Newton-Wellesley Hospital and the Cancer Genetics Network, we show that the combination models are able to achieve performance gains over both BRCAPRO and BCRAT. In the Cancer Genetics Network cohort, we show that the proposed BRCAPRO + BCRAT penetrance modification model performs comparably to IBIS, an existing model that combines detailed family history with non-genetic risk factors.

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Penetrance for Cancer Risk

Multi-gene panel testing allows many cancer susceptibility genes to be tested quickly at a lower cost making such testing accessible to a broader population. Thus, more patients carrying pathogenic germline mutations in various cancer-susceptibility genes are being identified. This creates a great opportunity, as well as an urgent need, to counsel these patients about appropriate risk reducing management strategies. Counseling hinges on accurate estimates of age-specific risks of developing various cancers associated with mutations in a specific gene, i.e., penetrance estimation. We propose a meta-analysis approach based on a Bayesian hierarchical random-effects model to obtain penetrance estimates by integrating studies reporting different types of risk measures (e.g., penetrance, relative risk, odds ratio) while accounting for the associated uncertainties. After estimating posterior distributions of the parameters via a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, we estimate penetrance and credible intervals. We investigate the proposed method and compare with an existing approach via simulations based on studies reporting risks for two moderate-risk breast cancer susceptibility genes, ATM and PALB2. Our proposed method is far superior in terms of coverage probability of credible intervals and mean square error of estimates. Finally, we apply our method to estimate the penetrance of breast cancer among carriers of pathogenic mutations in the ATM gene.

Estimating genetic architecture and integrating functional annotations improve polygenic risk scores derived from GWAS summary statistics

Constructing accurate polygenic risk scores (PRS) can benefit the prevention and early treatment of complex diseases. This can be accomplished by leveraging different information characterizing the effects of genetic variants on the diseases, and incorporating functional annotations. In this ...