Follow the Data! If you do, AVOID prediction markets like the plague.

Researchers examined EVERY trade on PolyMarket from 2023 to 2025 >> 1.72M accounts and $13.76B in trading volume and discovered that ~ 3% of traders account for most price discovery aka these traders consistently predict outcomes and move prices in the right direction. The rest - the remaining 97% of traders mostly do not, and are on the losing side of trades.

This analysis indicates that prediction markets DO NOT work because of "collective wisdom" of crowds, they work because of who is informed > also known a Insiders! https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/26/only-3-of-traders-drive-prediction-markets-accuracy-not-the-crowd-study-finds
#PredictionMarkets #PolyMaket #Kalshi #Betting #Gambling #InsiderTrading #MarketForces #Luck #Crowds #Wisdom

Bei #Polymaket setzen 96% der Zocker Geld darauf, dass ein Duzend Eier in den #USA noch vor April $5 kostet.

https://polymarket.com/event/price-of-dozen-eggs-hits-5-before-april