Another incredible slab back! ⛓️🔥 Thrilled to add this Spawn #9 (CGC 9.4)—a massive key issue featuring the first appearance of Angela and Medieval Spawn. I picked this up raw at Heroes and Hitters in Rocky Hill, CT, and sent it off for grading. Huge thanks to @cgccomics, @ImageComics, and legends @NeilGaiman and @ToddMcFarlane for this classic!
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TL;DR: circumstantial claims/evidence that cast doubt on some of the accusers' stories and the media outlet that published them first. None of it exonerates Neil Gaiman, though it might be difficult or impossible to ever do that.
I'm not sure what to believe about this but here are my reactions to the main points (numbering as in original):
The Case Was Dismissed (and nobody reported it): Not necessarily relevant to the question of whether Gaiman committed sexual assault. The dismissal could mean a judge found no credible evidence to proceed, but that also doesn't necessarily mean Gaiman is innocent.
Pavlovich Is Not Poor (and not dependent): Not relevant. Wealthy people get assaulted, too. Lots.
** Human Trafficking Claims are Clearly Made Up (and generally impossible)**: I am always skeptical of human trafficking claims from the USA because of the way we have reshaped our legal system around this. Human trafficking is "...about the only way to get a case heard in the US..." Yeah, I think that's accurate. It also doesn't necessarily mean Gaiman is innocent; it could just mean some lawyers are working hard for their client.
The Story Has Changed (and nobody talks about it): By itself, this means nothing about whether the alleged assault(s) happened. Victims of assault change their stories frequently, for highly understandable reasons.
Rachel Johnson knows Julia Hobsbawm (and kept it hidden): Maybe it's suspicious. I dont' think it's super relevant. Gaiman could still be guilty.
Suggestions of a Culture War Takedown (very suspicious): Of course this is ragebait for me, a liberalprogressiveperson, but again, by itself it means nothing. The actions of other people don't determine whether the alleged events happened.
Tortoise Media Can’t Count (or simply inflated the numbers): This is relevant to the (non?)accusations by various women, but those don't change the realities of the allegations by Pavlovich. Those are other women and other alleged assaults. Even if none of them happened, the assaults against Pavlovich still might have.
The Far-Right Was Involved (they want to do the same to David Tennant): Again, I'm listening b/c the far right is a bunch of assholes, but this is nothing more than a report of far-right people finding the Gaiman assault story useful for their political dickshittery. This is about other people's reactions. It has nothing to do with the reality of the allegations.
Caroline Wallner Demanded Money (and now demands silence): Yeah, she sounds like a piece of work in this write-up (which is not remotely neutral or objective), but again: These circumstances don't necessarily mean she wasn't assaulted. Again again: The reality of one person's experience doesn't change the realities of another person's experience in this case. If Wallner is lying, Gaiman still might have assaulted Pavlovich.
Kendra Stout Mentions No Abuse (and wanted to marry him): Same as points in 8, above.
Katherine Kendall Was ‘‘Pretending’’ (and doesn’t claim sexual assault): Same as in points 8 and 9, above.
Disclaimer: I have really enjoyed Gaiman's books and other creative works, so it would be reassuring to me to find out he's not a rapist. At the same time, nothing in this list proves or even strongly supports that possibility; he could still definitely have raped Pavlovich (or the other women accusing him), so I don't think we'll ever get that resolution. Sexual assault is usually kept hidden; those perpetrating it cover their tracks and try not to leave any evidence except the testimonies of the victims (and they try to silence those, too). This means almost all sexual assault allegations, from the outside, are a nearly-unsolvable mystery, by classic detective fiction standards. Cops routinely throw up their hands and say, essentially, "it's her word against his," leading to a huge number of ignored actual assault cases constantly being sidelined in the legal system and leading many people to adopt simple heuristics for deciding like "accusers are always right" (and honestly, if that was everyone's default judgment, research suggests we would be wrong sometimes, and punish innocent people, but a lot less often and a lot fewer people than in our current system).
There are always at least two possibilities: First, the assaults happened. Second, they didn't. Statistics are well and good, but the realities are either Yes or No in every individual case. If there was no assault, then the allegations are false. We have evidence from research on this to show that false allegations of rape that reach the legal system (via police report) are rare (and even more rare with child victims FWIW), but rare isn't nonexistent and, of note to me, that research is not based on allegations against wealthy people.
As a cynical bastard I believe that people are motivated by money and greed. Women are not an exception to this. Women are the same species as men and are capable of aggression just like men are (see NISVS reports of female-perpetrated sexual assault, for instance). Women tend to use relational (versus physical) aggression strategies more than men do, but the rates of aggression are not, to my knowledge, different at all. I suppose another disclaimer is in order: At least two women I dated about 25 years ago did some extremely shitty things to try to harm me after we broke up. But I grew up with older sisters so I never had any illusions about the purity and sweetness and nonaggression of half of the human race.
And still, none of what's in the blog post linked here exonerates Gaiman. If this is all the evidence available, then I suspect he won't be found guilty in any future criminal or civil case, but that is hardly a badge of innocence; guilty perpetrators avoid prosecution all the time this way. We are all, frequently, in the position of trying to guess whether interpersonal coercion/violence/abuse happened or not, using evidence that would never hold up (and often doesn't) in a court of law. And if we're aware of research we know that the vast majority of accusations--at least those that make it to the cops or to court--are true, so every time we see one of these we should default to "probably true," just because of what we know about base rates.
And this case has elements that suggest potential adjustments to the base rates (i.e., alleged victims who can afford powerful lawyers and an alleged perpetrator who has a lot of money). But I don't know of any research on the rates of false allegations of assault when the accused is extremely wealthy; it's armchair philosophizing to suggest without data that they might be higher. This is a problem of sampling: the research doesn't have this sample, AFAIK. There are lots of case studies to show that, in plenty of cases like this, the wealthy alleged perpetrator was definitely guilty: Donald Trump, Bill Clinton, Clarence Thomas, et al. There are counter-examples, too, though those don't always make the news, for the same reaons Gaiman's case dismissal didn't. The "case study" approach doesn't get you past "it could go either way."
I don't know whether Gaiman committed sexual assault, but I am still avoiding his media because I think there's a possibility he did.
As Voltaire wrote, "Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position, but certainty is an absurd one."
https://technopathology.substack.com/p/neil-gaiman-is-innocent-a-new-years
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