My guess is that it will be much harder to project second-choice votes than ordinary D/R split and we could be waiting longer(!) for calls in the next iteration of #NVSenate / #NVGov

Any #ElectionLaw or data folks want to jump in on this?

(Note that the RCV initiative does not seem to apply to votes for president.)

I estimate that *if* CCM ends up winning the #NVSenate race by less than ~2,400 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the GOP COVID Death Cult is what made the difference.

The same applies if Dems win #AZGov or #AZAG by less than ~4,100 votes. 2/

📣📣 A few days ago I posted my analysis of whether the GOP's COVID Death Cult 💀 is likely to be the decisive factor in any *statewide* races. My conclusion was that #NVSenate is the most likely candidate for this (& potentially #AZGov, #AZAG & the upcoming #GASenate Runoff). 1/
📣📣 Now that the #NVSenate race is down to an 800 vote difference, it’s a good time to repost my analysis from yesterday about the potential impact of the GOP COVID Death Cult 💀 on 2022 statewide races: https://acasignups.net/22/11/11/elephant-room-redux-part-1-did-gops-covid-death-cult-decide-any-statewide-races
Elephant in the Room Redux, Part 1: Did the GOP's COVID Death Cult decide any statewide races?

I posted my final analysis of the potential impact of the COVID death rate divide between Republicans & Democrats on 2022 midterm election results back in September. According to official CDC data, around 815,000 Americans died of COVID-19 between 10/31/20 - 09/10/22. Of those, I had estimated that perhaps 569,000 had actually voted for Biden or Trump. The total number has tragically risen by around 7,000 more since mid-September, which means the number of 2020 voters who've died is also likely around 4,900 higher. Nationally, Joe Biden received 81,283,501 votes to Donald Trump's 74,223,975 votes. If COVID impacted both voting blocs at identical rates, you'd normally expect roughly 9.5% more Biden voters to have died of COVID over the past 2 years than Trump voters...or roughly 25,000 more Biden voters. Instead, however, I estimated that nationally, perhaps ~150,000 more Americans who voted for TRUMP in 2020 had died of COVID-19 between the 2020 general election and the 2022 midterm election than those who voted for Biden. Several obvious caveats apply here: "Voted for Trump" or "Voted for Biden" isn't a perfect overlap with Republicans and Democrats It also isn't a perfect overlap with how those ~569K people would have voted this year.

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📣 UPDATE: With the latest vote tallies out of Arizona & Nevada, I now see only one statewide race where the final margin might end up being less than the Red/Blue COVID Death Gap margin: #NVSenate, if Catherine Cortez Masto ends up winning by less than ~2,400 votes.

I estimate the Red/Blue #COVID19 death "gap" is between 900 - 4,100 people in AZ, and between 900 - 2,400 in NV.

As of this writing, there's 3 statewide races where I could potentially see it nudging the GOP into the L column: #AZAG, #NVSenate & #NVSoS. However...we'll see.

Nie śpię, bo liczę głosy w Clark County i Washoe County w Nevadzie. #Midterms2022 #NVsenate