<MattLevine> This is pretty stupid, but on the other hand I bet there will be an absolutely straight-faced launch of a prediction markets index in like two weeks. I really like the idea of television commentators saying “prediction markets were up today.” </MattLevine>

#MattLevine #MoneyStuff #Bloomberg #predictionmarkets

From today's #MoneyStuff, the question is raised: if Elon Musk is found to have violated securities law and must disgorge $143m in unjust earnings, but not enough specific victims can be found, what should happen?

High priced lawyers are busy arguing that courts cannot order repayment unless it goes to specific victims. And if no such victims can be identified then Elon gets to keep his cash, presumably. Giving the money back to the market makers who were the last link I the sale seems like an unjustified windfall. I am fine with the Treasury just keeping it, but I can see how that moves the cash from one category of penalty to another.

This I think is an area where cryptocurrency does actually have a useful innovation to contribute. If Mr. Musk has contributed a fraud on the market at large (a large distributed system in which it is hard to apportion losses.that match his gains) then we turn that around and spread the restitution out in a similar distributed fashion. Elon should have to buy a basket of equities and the "burn" it, reducing the number of shares that exist and thus increasing value for everyone else. (And also for him too, but we can solve that with the right math.)

There are no doubt some practical obstacles to overcome but I don't see any block in principle to the clearinghouse agreeing that those shares no longer exist.

#financialcrimes

I can't decide if I'm more upset by the blasphemy, the bad odds, or the counterparty risk. (Discovered via #MoneyStuff newsletter.)

https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027

If you believe this is a thing that can happen, then you also probably have to accept “But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father"?

The "yes" bet seems like a parlay in disguise: Jesus will return, yet Polymarket and money will still have value. So you're also betting on dispensationalism (i.e., the Rapture will leave plenty of money-using humans behind?) as well as a base rate with (demonstrably) a less than 1-in-2000 odds.

Today's Money Stuff column (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-11-24/leave-the-gold-in-the-ground) includes a Canadian company attempting to tokenize unmined gold:

"If you have a certain type of mind, or if you own a marginal gold mine, you might get to thinking that it is a bit wasteful — and environmentally destructive — to dig gold ore out of the ground, refine the ore into gold, form it into shiny bars of pure gold, and then stick it back underground so that people can trade electronic database entries entitling them to the gold. Why not leave it underground, skip all the other steps and just trade the database entries? If you own a gold mine, you can with reasonable confidence certify how much gold you have underground. That gold is there, in, uh, almost the same sense that the gold at the New York Fed is there. You could just go ahead and sell entitlements to it, without digging it up."

And while there's something not quite right about this -- people who want tokens can just buy tokens without the assay? -- I fully support "leave the gold in the ground instead of wreaking environmental destruction to mine it and then re-bury it."

On the other hand, paying people _not_ to mine gold is not quite the thing either.

What would the proper set of social incentives look like to not mine gold that will end up buried in a vault anyway? Precious metals asset tax, anyone?

#MoneyStuff #GoldMining

Since everything is securities fraud… surely the tech CEOs who laid off thousands and then saw a 50% haircut on valuations are seeing some nice fay lawsuits? 👀🍿

#moneystuff

Matt Levine putting in another iconic performance in #MoneyStuff today.

> “This is easy stuff. People in crypto don’t like it, but that’s because they are wrong.”