Two years ago, I wrote that the #Russia has a standard set of tricks and it is very likely that they will use the same methods against Ukraine as they did against #Chechnya in the 2000s.

At the time, the terrorist attack in #Beslan came as a shock to the West, which practically ended the moral and financial support for #Ichkeria, which allowed the Russians to finish it off on their terms.

The question is, who could become the Ukrainian Basayev in this case? (and I will explain more in the next post)

Russians already tried this trick in 2022, creating some fantastic connections between Ukraine and ISIS through the highly exaggerated presence of Chechen and Crimean volunteers, ‘ISIS patches’, etc. It worked just like the ‘biolaboratories’ - everyone just rolled their eyes. They also decided to blame Ukraine on 2024 Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow, but it was such a far stretch than nobody believed it in Russia.

In 2023 they already ran the same story, except that time it was US who “hired #ISIS for attacks in Russia”:

https://tass.com/defense/1575451

Today they announced Ukraine prepares terrorist attacks in EU, and I will quote them because the wording is important:

According to information available to the SVR, European capitals are concerned about Ukraine’s utter unwillingness to make agreements with Moscow as long as it requires ‘excessive concessions’ from Kiev. According to the information that the Europeans have, Kiev is considering various options aimed at disrupting peace talks, which include carrying out a series of terrorist attacks on Russian diplomatic missions in European countries

https://tass.com/politics/1915859

The problem I see now is that Trump’s circles seem to live in an alternative reality where an attack can be carried out by a Russian from Russia with a tattoo of a ‘Z’ on their forehead and yet they will still blame Ukraine. And they will believe it as they currently believe in ‘4% support for Zelensky’, ‘Ukraine starting the war’ or ‘murdering Orthodox priests’ (this is just what I have read since yesterday). So it only needs to work for a selected audience, not necessarily for everyone.

Children release white balloons outside the former school, which came under an attack by Islamist militants in 2004 and is currently a centre of patriotic education and terrorism prevention, during a commemoration ceremony marking the 20th anniversary of the deadly school siege in #Beslan in the region of North Ossetia–Alania, #Russia. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov

@photography

Saint Petersburg, #Russia

People attend a ceremony to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the 2004 hostage-taking at the #Beslan school, on the grounds of the Church of the Dormition of the Blessed Virgin Mary. More than 330 hostages were killed during the attack by pro-Chechen rebels, of whom 186 were children.

Photograph: Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images

@photography
#children

Putin und der Kaukasus: Erinnerung an ein Blutbad - mit Blick auf heute

Vor 20 Jahren stürmten russische Einheiten eine Schule in Beslan, in der Terroristen Geiseln genommen hatten. Hunderte starben bei dem Einsatz. Heute versucht Putin den Eindruck zu vermitteln, die Situation im Kaukasus sei stabil. Von B. Blaschke.

➡️ https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/russland-kaukasus-beslan-tschetschenien-100.html?at_medium=mastodon&at_campaign=tagesschau.de

#Russland #Beslan #Tschetschenien #Kadyrow