Here's what I've learned: before I try anything important, I do a little homework first—look things up, ask around, figure out how others did it. Then I test it in real life, not just in my head. I see what happens. If it works, great. If it fails, even better—now I have real data. I use that info to think again, adjust, and try again.
This cycle—research, test, learn, repeat—is how I stop guessing and start actually knowing how things work. Without it, I'm just hoping. And hoping isn't the same as knowing.
After doing all this for years, a real question has come up for me: why don't most people I know do this? Why do they seem to prefer fantasy over reality?