WalterBright

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Show threadWalterBright4d ago
Intuition is just our brains' amazing pattern recognition ability at work.
Show threadWalterBright6d ago

> the idea that some people do make better investment decisions than average.

Of course some do. After all, that's what makes an "average".

Some people are taller than average, too!

Show threadWalterBrightApr 1
Before the Apollo launch, von Braun was asked what the reliability of the rocket was. He asked 6 of his lieutenants if it was ready to fly. Each replied "nein". Von Braun reported that it had six nines of reliability.
Show threadWalterBrightApr 1
After the moon landing, Armstrong allowed that he had estimated the survivability at 50%.
Show threadWalterBrightMar 31
The best strategy is to save up at least 6 months of runway.
Show threadWalterBrightMar 31

The problem with advance warning is the employee who decides to sabotage in revenge.

For example, a company I knew in the 80s had a wholly owned subsidiary. It was losing money, so it was decided to close the subsidiary. Management decided that they'd be nice guys, and notified the subsidiary that it would be closed in 90 days and then everyone would be laid off.

90 days later, management arrived to close the facility. It was empty, stripped clean of everything. Not a lick of work was done in the 90 days, and nobody was there. There were reports that trucks had come to the loading dock, and took everything they could carry.

The cost of that led to the collapse of the company.