Is it just simple extrapolation? $419M in the period from July - Oct 2025 portends $1.676B in the period from July 2025 - July 2026?

That's why the Council's response yesterday was basically "yup, our forecast was accurate".

I say 'deliberately' because for the last 3 years, it's been the same script: an obviously wrong forecast of revenue in June to set up a spectacle in November when the Mayor announces good budget news after finding an extra few hundred billion dollars in the couch cushions

The reality is that the Mayor deliberately under-estimated tax revenues back in June when the budget was approved. A few months go by, the tax receipts are bEtTeR tHaN eXpEcTeD, and the Mayor can use the November Plan as an opportunity to apportion the extra money and claim a win

Council's messaging: "As forecasted by the Council, New York City’s economy continues to see steady growth. The Council’s revenue projections have been consistently substantiated by the mayoral administration’s financial plans, which is once again the case in this November Plan"

Mayor's messaging: "Today's announcement follows Mayor Adams' long history of strong fiscal management, including delivering an on-time, balanced, and fiscally-responsible $115.9 billion Adopted Budget earlier this year, which built on the FY 2026 Executive Budget, often called the Best Budget Ever"

Example: yesterday the Mayor released the "November Plan", which among other things is a mid-year check on tax revenues to make sure the budget agreed to with the Council in June is grounded in fiscal reality