About #Russia military budget and this #Putin statement[^1] from two days ago: https://mastodon.social/@randahl/114763005008371244

What Putin said were two things: “we plan to cut defense spending but there’s no concrete decisions” and, of course, blamed “the West”. How reliable these “plans to cut” are?

Only in December 2024 Putin himself signed the new Russian Federation state budget for 2025-2027.[^2] The plan already allocates record increase in overall spending and budget deficit, including military spending. Overall spending increase (relative to previous):

• 2025-2026 - +3 trillion RUB
• 2026-2027 - +2 trillion RUB

“National defense” allocation (absolute):

• 2025 - 13.5 trillion RUB
• 2026 - 12.8 trillion RUB
• 2027 - 13.1 trillion RUB

Together with “state security and law enforcement” these expenses make 41% of the whole state budget!

So there are two possibilities: Putin is indeed planning to revise the whole state budget after it had been signed half year ago, or he’s simply bullshitting Russian audience, who does indeed personally experience budget cuts in all other categories.

Is that 41% war spending sustainable for Russia? No, but it never was from the beginning. But Putin’s political goals of the war on Ukraine are the only tangible objective that is important for Putin. He will continue the military spending as long as there’s a penny left in his cash flows.

Talking about “we plan to reduce spending” to concerned citizens costs him nothing, so he can continue that for years, just as he promised almost anything for the last 20 years. Russian audience doesn’t ask questions about past promises, so why would he worry? And if they ask, Putin has 50’000 “Rosgvardia” structures who were created for the very purpose of preventing such questions… and they’re funded from the very “state security” budget.

[^1]: https://kyivindependent.com/despite-escalating-war-plans-putin-claims-russia-will-cut-military-spending-starting-in-2026/ [^2]: https://meduza.io/news/2024/12/01/putin-podpisal-zakon-o-trehletnem-byudzhete-rf-v-2025-godu-v-nem-zalozheny-rekordnye-rashody-na-voynu (in Russian)

🔥Вогненны Анонс🔥
Заўтра (29.06) я паеду на Купалле ў Дукорскі маёнтак ды зладжу адтуль прамую трансляцыю 🤳
Паглядзім, што падрыхтавалі арганізатары, узгадаем купальскія традыцыі ды, канешне, будзем весяліцца й інтэрактыўнічаць!
Ёсць адчуванне, што будзе шыкоўна!

⏰ Пачатак 15:00 на Ютубе https://youtube.com/@mifavl
Падпісвайцеся ды цісніце на званочак, каб не прапусціць

👋 калі ласка, падзяліцеся анонсам з тымі, каму можа быць цікава

Unexpected ending to arrest of former Ukrainian diplomat in Budapest

https://video.echelon.pl/w/m16TgxeWCaiBj8gyPkp1cc

Even #Russia military blogger Maxim Kalashnikov doubts if Russian aerial bombing attacks on #Ukraine towns are really justified. Posted a photo of a partly damaged residential house in Kyiv with the comment:

Kyiv. After our strikes. This, as you can see, is not Bankova with the organs of the highest authority of Bandera, not the Ministry of Defense and not the General Staff, not the SBU and not the GUR, not the National Bank and not the central TV of the Ze-regime. Why isn’t it [rockets] flying there? What is the point of such strikes then?