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> power users would be mostly running their own models

...with a fair amount of supervision, while frontier models would be running circles around them using project-specific memory and on-demand training (or whatever we would have by then).

I clarified implied "anything [that supports your claim that it's not taken seriously anymore]". A proper way to do it is meta-analysis.
Thanks. I'll wait for proper meta-analysis.
I think you might be mistaken, but feel free to cite metastudies that support you POV.

Regarding missing heritability: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-good-news-is-that-one-s...

"That is, once you include the rare variants, the amount of genetic variation that “should” exist but doesn’t shrinks to only 12%. Plausibly an even bigger study, investigating even rarer variants, could shrink the gap further, all the way to zero."

Of course, even then heritability will not be 100%.

The Good News Is That One Side Has Definitively Won The Missing Heritability Debate

...

Astral Codex Ten