Tim Supinie

125 Followers
71 Following
59 Posts
Hydrometeor connoisseur 💧❄️🌪️ / Electron herder 💻 / Rhythmic airbender 🎸🎶 / Amateur edible chemist 🍞🍳 / Heather's worse half 👫 / OU SoM alum 👨‍🎓
Githubhttps://github.com/tsupinie
VWP Plotterhttps://autumnsky.us/vad/
Tornado Archivehttps://tornadoarchive.com/home/
Not quite what I expected. I expected less cloud cover over the south during El Niño due to a stronger subtropical jet. But there's actually *less* cloud cover over TX and the lower Mississippi Valley during El Niño Aprils. Also maybe a bit more cloud cover over the lower Great Lakes. (2/2)

Folks have already looked at cloud cover a climatology for the 2024 solar eclipse. It looks something like this, with generally more cloud cover the farther east you go. Though now that this winter will likely be ENSO+, how does that affect the cloud cover climatology?

I used ERA5 cloud cover every 6 hours from April 1-15, 1940-2023. For the ENSO state, the February-April ONI≥0.4 is El Niño and ONI≤-0.4 is La Niña. (1/2)

Here are some of the higher 3- and 4-day rain totals you'll see around here. NOAA Atlas 14 says 7.1" at Norman in the last 4 days is ~10% chance to see here in a given year. (Probably less common in early-mid July, given it's not in our climo rainfall max of May/June.)
I see the GFS has figured out when my first true solo Meso-A desk shift is, and it wants to troll me.

I've been working on some code to plot geospatial data using WebGL in-browser. Here's my first release: https://github.com/tsupinie/autumnplot-gl

It's a little rough around the edges, and a bit limited in capability right now, but I hope to expand the capability in the future.

And here's a demo using some low-detail map tiles I've been working on, as well.
https://autumnsky.us/autumnplot-gl-demo/

#javascript

GitHub - tsupinie/autumnplot-gl: Hardware-accelerated geospatial data plotting in the browser

Hardware-accelerated geospatial data plotting in the browser - GitHub - tsupinie/autumnplot-gl: Hardware-accelerated geospatial data plotting in the browser

GitHub
Claire Saffitz's miso buttermilk biscuits.
My second weekend of May has been spoken for. Sorry, everyone else.

Over half the 00Z HREF members have SBCAPE >1000 J/kg near Houston tomorrow, and with hodographs like this from the 00Z NSSL WRF, that's a fairly hairy combo. The orientation of the QLCS on the Pacific front and presence of any pre-frontal storms will determine tornado potential.

UH tracks are generally shorter in the warm sector and longer to the north, so the most robust updrafts may be away from the surface-based instability. If I were in the area, I wouldn't want to bank on that, though!

A belated birthday gift for the wife: maple pecan sticky buns. The scraps I baked up earlier were delicious!
The VAD wind profile from central Oklahoma (KTLX) is pretty straight, so I expect a large hail threat to dominate with the early activity developing along I-35. The 1-2 km ARL winds back slightly towards northeast Oklahoma (KINX), so the tornado threat will probably pick up as the storms get farther east.