I must admit, Twitter is still my first port of call as all the interesting folks I follow are still there.
I wonder whether there will be a tipping point. Not for a long time, I wouldn't think.

@systeemkabouter @mijndert a bunch of cricket fans moved over en masse back in November, when Musk did something or other, all drifted back to Twitter after a few days.
I feel Mastodon (or A.N. Other social media) will only really take off if people migrate and take their followers with them. It's happened to some extent in the academic and tech worlds, but don't think we're near the tipping point for casual Twitter users posting about sports, music, other hobbies, etc.
@mijndert The reason I don't come on here often is mainly to do with a lot of the people I follow not moving over from Twitter.
It's also tricky to find people with the same interests, as you can only search via hashtag, not by word. So, for instance, you couldn't put a sports team's name in the search and get a bunch of people chatting about it that you might want to follow.