OK mastodon!

Lots of speculation about an inevitable severe Twitter outage everywhere.

So, what % odds would you put on one happening at Twitter between now and January 30?

That's what myself and 25 others sought to gather over the weekend. The panel we put together forecasted a 72.8% belief it would happen. A chart with the spread of forecasts is attached.

We made the bar to define "severe outage" pretty high and would need to include all of the following caveats (attached in pic, or in link).

We'll track and judge the forecast here: https://magoo.github.io/risk-measurement/blog/forecasting-a-twitter-outage/

We'll see how wrong we are in January! 🎉