@snurb Can't put this on the noisy place but I thought you may enjoy - raw, unweighted, survey's still open - testing framing; Scomo at church image.
ICYMI: The results of the first #WentworthByElection survey are out.
- Multiple simulations all have Dave Sharma losing.
- Jewish community not voting for any particular candidate.
- Climate Change #1 issue, but on a crowded issues list.
Full analysis https://www.voterchoice.com.au/wentworthsurvey1/
Results of Wentworth by-election survey 1 | The Voter Choice Project
The Voter Choice ProjectThe book is out - The Rise of Right Populism: Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Australian Politics (me in ch 6)
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-13-2670-7#aboutThe Rise of Right-Populism | SpringerLink
This book is framed by four over-arching narratives of inquiry. While all four are firmly anchored in Australia’s political milieu – and as such are of considerable interest to a range of actors there
Here's some more figures.
One last graph... If we combine the 'Coal vs Renewables vs Cost' and 'Power Prices' respondents, and see whether those who care about cost (either nuanced position or straight forward) are likely to factor it into their vote... we get a clue as to what the Coalition is up to. That big green 3.9% that don't know who they want to win - bigger than partisan voters.
So let's ask the most important question. Does energy impact votes? Yup. But again, other than climate change being strongly red and coal lovers not, there's little partisan alignment.
And to possibly explain WTF the government keeps banging on about power prices, it's because people are pissed and think government can fix it.
Here's the good news for the environmentalists:
People cause climate change ✅
Government should invest in renewables ✅
And no - there's no partisan alignment on how people are thinking about energy (sorry advocates of framing theory). This far more complicated graph shows the same thing, by who they want to win, and colours indicate current intended first preference vote.