Week Ahead

Broadcom's miss and a much higher than expected nonfarm payroll rock the markets. Sovereign yields rise once more; Fed forecasted to hike by 25bp in December....

https://inflectionpoint.blog/2026/06/week-ahead-143/

Week Ahead

Strong economic forecasts and exceptional earnings bring the US back to an all-time record; S&P 500's 2026 target raised to 8,000. With the US and Iran still debating about an extension of the ceasefire which would reopen Hormuz, oil has fallen below $95. The positive economic outlook extends to 2Q26. The path for many Central Banks is strictly tied to geopolitical developments, to the price of oil, and to resurging inflation; a hike by the Fed in December…

https://inflectionpoint.blog/2026/05/week-ahead-142/

Week Ahead

Expectations of an agreement between the US and Iran pushed the US stock market up,  just shy of an all-time record (which might be well set today). While oil has fallen below $100, the reopening of Hormuz is crucial in order not to raise inflation even further. Earnings are absolutely wonderful, beating all estimates, with a positive outlook which extends to 2Q26.

https://inflectionpoint.blog/2026/05/week-ahead-141/

Week Ahead

The Sovereign yield crisis shakes up a resilient, constructive stock market, just shy of an all-time record. President Trump mulls what to do with Iran after returning from the summit in Beijing, after Tehran insists for tolls to be paid in Hormuz even after the end of the conflict. Earnings are absolutely wonderful, beating all estimates: watch out for Nvidia on Wednesday after close.

https://inflectionpoint.blog/2026/05/week-ahead-140/

Week Ahead

The battle for Hormuz is about to start, with the US commanding a blockade of the region, after the failed talks in Pakistan. Oil rebounds above $100. There is a component of higher energy prices in March inflation report, while the headline number was benign. The earnings report for 1Q26 starts amid strong expectations: guidance will be key. The outlook for inflation and the path for many Central Banks is strictly tied to geopolitical improvements and to…

https://inflectionpoint.blog/2026/04/week-ahead-138/

Week Ahead

Last minute ceasefire for 2 weeks agreed between the US and Iran shortly before the President's deadline; Hormuz reopened. Oil falls below $100. The March labour report was solid, with earnings forecast for 2026 upgraded once again to $320 (bottom up). The outlook for inflation and the path for many Central Banks is strictly tied to geopolitical improvements and to the price of oil; anything can still happen.

https://inflectionpoint.blog/2026/04/week-ahead-137/

Week Ahead

The war enters the fourth week, with no side relenting in its attacks against the other. Oil is just under $100 a barrel. Fear of added inflation reprice risk in credit and recession expectations and can change the outlook for 2026 of many Central Banks. US earnings continue to be good, with technology continuing on its great stride. The biggest tail risks are the US Economy falling into a recession (20% chance in 2026), resurging inflation caused by high…

https://inflectionpoint.blog/2026/03/week-ahead-136/

Week Ahead

The war enters the third week, with no side relenting in its attacks against the other. Next week all major Central Banks will offer an assessment of the impact of high energy prices on inflation. Oil is hovering above $100 a barrel. Fear of added inflation reprice risk in credit and can change the outlook for 2026 of many Central Banks.

https://inflectionpoint.blog/2026/03/week-ahead-135/

Week Ahead

The war between the US and Israel against Iran is taking centre stage: the US President says that it is 'very complete, pretty much'. Oil shoots to $120 a barrel, before declining. Fear of added inflation reprice risk in credit and change the outlook for 2026 of many Central Banks. US earnings continue to be good: Oracle's report on Tuesday, after close, is a major focus for tech and AI.

https://inflectionpoint.blog/2026/03/week-ahead-134/

Week Ahead

Weak GDP, strong inflation (Core PCE Price Index), and the SCOTUS frame another volatile week. New 15% global tariffs by the US Administration get the world scrambling for answers and add to current uncertainties. One more week until we get to the hopefully calmer waters of March, with Nvidia in focus on Wednesday after close, when President Trump will speak. The biggest tail risks are the US Economy falling into a recession (20% chance in 2026), resurging…

https://inflectionpoint.blog/2026/02/week-ahead-133/