| Web | https://floklimm.github.io |
Our work is now published in Royal Society Open Science
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.221131
Check it out if you want to read about a quantitative approach to the End of History!
Political regimes have been changing throughout human history. After the apparent triumph of liberal democracies at the end of the twentieth century, Francis Fukuyama and others have been arguing that humankind is approaching an ‘end of history’ (EoH) in ...
Hello World!
After 3 years, NetSci is finally back in person!
Vienna, July 10-14 2023.
https://netsci2023.wixsite.com/netsci2023
The conference will be held in the historic main building of the University of Vienna.
@[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected]
🐦🔗: https://twitter.com/netsci2023/status/1594601516651974661
As more and more scientific journals start to trickle into Mastodon, I started to collect a list of journals and their handles
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gqRhnP-91MSA4Yl7xxCdr160yyt5e6XGZpk7O5ZCrQ/edit?usp=sharing
Feel free to comment those journals that I missed and I will add them!
Tabellenblatt1 Journal Name,Handle,Field Advances in Archaeological Practice,@[email protected] ,Archeology American Naturalist ,@[email protected] ,Biology eLife,@[email protected],Biology Genome Biology and Evolution,@[email protected],Molecular Biology Journal of Cul...
Furthermore, there is evidence that democracies and autocracies are more stable than mixed regimes.
For details, see the preprint under https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.01955
All data and Python code is available on GitHub https://github.com/floklimm/democracyMarkovChain
For this, I model the transitions between different political regimes as a Markov chain and estimate the transition probabilities from time-series data covering more than two centuries. To estimate the EoH, I compute the steady-state distribution of this Markov chain.
The core findings are:
- at the EoH, 46% of countries are expected to be full democracies
- the characteristic lifetimes of democracies are 244 years
- autocracies are with 69 years, much more short-lived
New preprint out: "Quantifying the `end of history' through a Bayesian Markov-chain approach"
After the fall of the Iron Curtain, Francis Fukuyama suggested that humankind would be approaching an `end of history', dominated by liberal democracies around the globe.
This prediction has been challenged by recent developments that seem to indicate the rise of defective democracies.
In my new preprint, I am taking a data-driven view at what the EoH could look like:
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