Mastodawn

Frankie Cordeira Jr Sep 25, 2023

🏡📉 "If The Fed Didn't Hike, Why Did Mortgage Rates Hit Long Term Highs?" 🤔📈
The mortgage market can be a puzzle sometimes. Let's unpack this intriguing conundrum and stay informed about the forces shaping our financial landscape. 💼🔍 #mortgagerates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09222023

If The Fed Didn't Hike, Why Did Mortgage Rates Hit Long Term Highs?

Mortgage rates actually recovered a bit on Friday as the underlying bond market experienced a modest correction after spiking to the weakest levels in more than a decade over the past 2 days. Despite the improvement, mortgages are also still near multi-decade highs. Why is this the case when the Fed didn't hike rates this week? This counterintuitive movement is fairly common when it comes to the 8 Fed meetings each year. Rates have fallen on several occasions when the Fed hiked throughout this rate hike cycle. There are several reasons this can happen. Some are complicated, but two of the simplest reasons are all we need this time around. First off, the Fed only has 8 scheduled opportunities to update rates every year while the bond market has thousands of opportunities every day. Because of that, a Fed rate hike is often just a lagging development that the market has already priced in. The Fed actually tries to avoid surprising the market when it comes to hikes/cuts. Via speeches and press conferences, it effectively preps the market for potential changes. The market can trade these expectations in a variety of ways. The most direct is via Fed Funds Futures, which give traders a way to bet on the level of the Fed Funds Rate on any given month well into the future. Traders haven't budged in their expectation of this week's meeting resulting in a 5.375% Fed Funds Rate for months!

Mortgage News Daily

Frankie Cordeira Jr Sep 22, 2023

📉🤨 "The Fed's inflation read is dead wrong." 📊🧐

A prominent professor, known for pioneering a popular recession predictor, warns of a looming 2024 downturn. 📆📉 Time to keep a close eye on these economic indicators and be prepared for potential shifts ahead! 💼🔍 #Fed #Economy #RecessionWatch 🌐📈 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feds-inflation-read-is-dead-wrong-thats-why-a-2024-downturn-looms-says-professor-who-pioneered-popular-recession-predictor-6a4e6aa7?mod=mw_pushly&send_date=20230922

The Fed's got inflation dead wrong. That's why a 2024 recession is likely.

The Federal Reserve has achieved its goal of taming U.S. inflation, according to Campbell Harvey of Duke University, but refuses to say its rate-hike cycle is complete

MarketWatch

Frankie Cordeira Jr Sep 21, 2023

📈💥 Hold onto your wallets, folks! Mortgage rates just made a gravity-defying leap, hitting 23-year highs 🏡💸. It's a challenging time for homebuyers, but remember, knowledge is power. Stay informed, explore your options, and make those financial decisions wisely! 💪📊 #MortgageRates #RealEstate #FinancialNews 🏠📈 https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09212023

Mortgage Rates Jump up to 23-Year Highs

Rates moved only moderately higher on Wednesday after the Fed rocked the bond market with its updated rate forecasts. To reiterate yesterday's analysis, it's not that the market is expecting the Fed to be accurate in those forecasts. Rather, the forecasts help investors understand how the Fed's approach will be calibrated going forward. In simpler terms, the Fed doesn't think rates are too high right now. If anything, they might need to go higher. Moreover, they won't go lower until economic data really starts to deteriorate in a compelling way. Unfortunately, this morning's most relevant economic report didn't deteriorate at all (weekly jobless claims were 201k versus a median forecast of 225k). Actually, it's fortunate for the economy, but unfortunate for interest rates. Between the data and the overnight momentum in overseas markets, bonds are at their weakest levels in years. Mortgage-backed securities (the bonds that dictate mortgage rates) didn't swoon quite as much as Treasuries, but as of today, it was just enough to push the average mortgage lender almost perfectly back in line with the highest 30yr fixed rate of the past 23 years.

Mortgage News Daily

Frankie Cordeira Jr Sep 21, 2023

📈🍂 Another Big September Fed Breakout! 🍂📊

The Federal Reserve's latest moves are sending shockwaves through the financial world. Brace for impact and stay tuned for what's next! 💥🏦💼 #Fed #Economy #SeptemberSurprises https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-09212023

Another Big September Fed Breakout

Wednesday was a confirmation of a hawkish Fed that won't care about the economy until it sees actual damage, and even then, only if that damage coincides with the expected drop in inflation. More important than Powell's message during the press conference was the takeaway from the Fed's dot plot. The market was positioned for this, but subsequent trading suggests not positioned enough. Domestic traders began shifting their selling focus away from the shortest end of the yield curve this morning. This is their way of acquiescing to the idea that the Fed will attempt to keep rates high for as long as possible (or as long as it takes for inflation to come back to target levels). Now for the plot twist: virtually all of the first paragraph was copied and pasted from last September's post-Fed Thursday (here's the link to the original). Pretty spooky... In the present day example, we have the same sort of international follow-through in the overnight session following a higher for longer nudge from the Fed, but we also have stronger jobless claims data and a higher inflation reading inside the Philly Fed data (of the two, the labor market data is the bigger mover). Comparing the present example to the big picture, we find similarities and differences. In both cases, the Fed day reaction represented a technical breakout of a recently achieved high yield: But the 2022 bond market was in a much greater state of flux. The yield curve had only recently inverted and 2s had been selling off faster and faster compared to 10s. Contrast that to 2023 where 2s have been far more sideways compared to 10s. While it can take months, the stabilization of a curve inversion trend is another step toward an eventual rate reversal. The scary caveat is that some past examples show multiple head fakes back toward an un-inverted curve before it finally takes. The following chart shows those head fakes (note, this is 10s vs 1s as opposed to 10s vs 2s, due to better historical data availability in 1yr Treasuries).

Mortgage News Daily

Frankie Cordeira Jr Sep 21, 2023

🏡💰 Brace yourselves, folks! U.S. mortgage rates could potentially soar to 8% in the near future. If you've been considering a home purchase or refinancing, now might be the time to act. Stay informed and make those financial moves wisely! 💪📈 #MortgageRates #FinanceNews #HomeSweetHome 🏠📊 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-mortgage-rates-could-go-to-8-865a042?mod=mw_pushly&send_date=20230921&fbclid=IwAR2tIiYmhHmz1HOXB_jNIF5YjdmtMPIYZH-EydYAenkUPx1oBwDB0_bczHo

U.S. mortgage rates could go to 8%

Expect mortgage rates to fall only after the Fed is done raising its policy rate and the economy shows signs of cooling, analysts say

MarketWatch

Frankie Cordeira Jr Sep 20, 2023

Dow rises by 120 points while Nasdaq takes a dip as the Fed keeps interest rates steady and hints at the possibility of another hike. 📈💹 What's your strategy in this dynamic market? 💼💡 #StockMarket #Fed #InterestRates https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s-p-500-futures-stall-as-traders-hunker-down-ahead-of-fed-comments-b288f482?mod=markets

Dow up 120 points, Nasdaq lower, after Fed leaves interest rate unchanged, signals another rise possible

U.S. stock indexes were trading mostly lower Wednesday afternoon after Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate decision unchanged, but signaled...

MarketWatch

Frankie Cordeira Jr Sep 20, 2023

US Fed Chair's cautionary tone reminds us there's a 'long way to go' in achieving sustainable inflation control. 📈🤝 What strategies will they employ? 🧐 #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicOutlook https://insiderpaper.com/us-fed-holds-interest-rates-at-22-year-high/

US Fed holds interest rates at 22-year high - Insider Paper

This is a developing story.. check back for updates.

Insider Paper

Frankie Cordeira Jr Sep 20, 2023

Breaking News: The US Fed maintains interest rates at a 22-year high 📈💼 What's next for the economy and your investments? Stay tuned! 🇺🇸💰 #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Economy https://insiderpaper.com/us-fed-holds-interest-rates-at-22-year-high/

US Fed holds interest rates at 22-year high - Insider Paper

This is a developing story.. check back for updates.

Insider Paper

Frankie Cordeira Jr Sep 20, 2023

Mortgage App Volume Bounces Back Strong from Holiday Doldrums 🏡📈 Time to seize those home-buying opportunities! 💪 #RealEstate #Mortgage #MarketTrends https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/09202023-mortgage-application-volume

Mortgage App Volume Rebounds from Holiday Doldrums

Mortgage application activity bounced back from the holiday-shortened prior week but is still running significantly below historic levels. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, increased 5.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended September 15. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 16 percent compared with the week that started with Labor Day. The Refinance Index rose 13 percent week-over-week and was 29 percent lower than the same week in 2022. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 31.6 percent of total applications from 29.1 percent the previous week. [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index gained 2.0 percent compared to the prior week. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent and was 26 percent lower than the same week one year ago. [purchaseappschart] “Mortgage applications increased last week, despite the 30-year fixed rate edging back up to 7.31 percent – its highest level in four weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications increased for conventional and FHA loans over the week but remained 26 percent lower than the same week a year ago, as homebuyers continue to face higher rates and limited for-sale inventory , which have made purchase conditions more challenging. Refinance applications also increased last week but are still almost 30 percent lower than the same week last year.”

Mortgage News Daily

Frankie Cordeira Jr Sep 20, 2023

Pre-Fed Jitters fueling market turbulence! 📈💼 Result: Highest Yields Since 2007 📈💹 #Fed #Economy #MarketWatch https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09192023

Pre-Fed Jitters Result in Highest Yields Since 2007

Bonds Get Pre-Fed Jitters After a Mostly Flat Day Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory, mostly following an overnight sell-off in Europe. Trading levels had recovered enough by 10am that we could consider the overall trend to be mostly flat. In fact, MBS came fairly close to breaking even just before 2pm, but then things went sideways. Actually, sideways is the wrong word. Prices dropped somewhat abruptly and Treasury yields spiked to new super-long-term highs. Without any clear scapegoats, we're forced to rely on explanations filed under the category of pre-Fed jitters. One would think traders already knew how jittery they were before 2pm today, but sometimes you don't know until you see how jittery everyone else is. Econ Data / Events Housing Starts 1.283m vs 1.44m f'cast Building Permits 1.543m vs 1.443m f'cast Market Movement Recap 09:06 AM Selling momentum building. 10yr up 6bps at 4.361. MBS down almost an eighth. 10:44 AM Nice recovery but still weaker on the day. 10yr up 2.8bps at 4.329. MBS down an eighth. 01:34 PM Best levels of the day for MBS, down only 2 ticks. 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.333 02:46 PM Quickly down 7 ticks in MBS. 10yr up 5.8bps at 4.359.

Mortgage News Daily