Per AxbomToday is Stanislav Petrov Day. It's a day when I take some time to reflect on the importance of questioning technology. Because that is what Stanislav Petrov did when he averted nuclear war on September 26 in 1983.
"We can't wait anymore."
"7 minutes until the first warhead is in the observation zone."
"We won't have time to retaliate. You have to make a decision!"
"You see it?"
"Could be."
"No. That's not heat from a missile."
"Damn!"
"Let's keep looking."
"THE COMPUTER CAN'T BE WRONG!"
"I don't understand it."
"Damn it! They have to confirm this damn attack."
"All thirty levels of security levels confirms the attack!"
"Infrared devices verify heat from all five launched missiles!"
"What are we going to do?"
Stanislav Petrov: "Nothing. I don't trust the computer. We'll wait."
This dialogue is from a re-enactment in the documentary The Man Who Saved the World.
Last year I wrote about three learnings I take away from his story.
1. Embrace multiple perspectives.
Petrov was educated as an engineer rather than a military man. He knew the unpredictability of machine output.
2. Look for multiple confirmation points.
To confirm our beliefs we should expect many different variables to line up and tell us the same story. If one or more variables are saying something different, we need to pursue those anomalies to understand why. If the idea of a faulty system lines up with all other variables, that makes it more likely.
3. Reward exposure of faulty systems.
If we keep praising our tools for their excellence and efficiency it's hard to later accept their defects. When shortcomings are found, this needs to be communicated just as clearly and widely as successes. Maintaining an illusion of perfect, neutral and flawless systems will keep people from questioning the systems when the systems need to be questioned.
https://axbom.com/lessons-from-stanislav-petrov/
"We can't wait anymore."
"7 minutes until the first warhead is in the observation zone."
"We won't have time to retaliate. You have to make a decision!"
"You see it?"
"Could be."
"No. That's not heat from a missile."
"Damn!"
"Let's keep looking."
"THE COMPUTER CAN'T BE WRONG!"
"I don't understand it."
"Damn it! They have to confirm this damn attack."
"All thirty levels of security levels confirms the attack!"
"Infrared devices verify heat from all five launched missiles!"
"What are we going to do?"
Stanislav Petrov: "Nothing. I don't trust the computer. We'll wait."
This dialogue is from a re-enactment in the documentary The Man Who Saved the World.
Last year I wrote about three learnings I take away from his story.
1. Embrace multiple perspectives.
Petrov was educated as an engineer rather than a military man. He knew the unpredictability of machine output.
2. Look for multiple confirmation points.
To confirm our beliefs we should expect many different variables to line up and tell us the same story. If one or more variables are saying something different, we need to pursue those anomalies to understand why. If the idea of a faulty system lines up with all other variables, that makes it more likely.
3. Reward exposure of faulty systems.
If we keep praising our tools for their excellence and efficiency it's hard to later accept their defects. When shortcomings are found, this needs to be communicated just as clearly and widely as successes. Maintaining an illusion of perfect, neutral and flawless systems will keep people from questioning the systems when the systems need to be questioned.
https://axbom.com/lessons-from-stanislav-petrov/
Three lessons from a man who averted nuclear war by not trusting a computer
On September 26, 1983, Stanislav Petrov made the correct decision to not trust a computer. The early warning system at command center Serpukhov-15, loudly alerting of a nuclear attack from the United States, was of course modern and up-to-date. Stanislav Petrov was in charge, working his second shift in place
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