64% chance. Resolves YES if AAPL intraday high > $182.94 during any regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) since market creation (2023-05-18) up to the end of WWDC on Friday, June 9, otherwise resolves NO. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high price. Most recent high (will try to update as it gets close to resolution): 2023-05-17 $175.24
63% chance. Last price (will try to update every day after close): 2023-03-01 $145.31 Resolves after the first regular trading session since market creation (2023-03-01) during which the price stayed above $150 (YES) or below $140 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after close: Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $150 Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $140 Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $144 then quoted prices next day would be $72 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2).
63% chance. Last price (2/11/23): $151.01 Resolves YES if AAPL hits $200 before hitting $100 Resolves NO if AAPL hits $100 before hitting $200 Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, unadjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $180 then quoted prices next day would be $90 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2).
53% chance. Last year Apple's market cap fell from $3 trillion on 1/3/22 to just under $2 trillion exactly a year later. Which will it be next? Resolves YES if Apple's market cap hits $3 trillion before hitting $2 trillion Resolves NO if Apple's market cap hits $2 trillion before hitting $3 trillion Last price (2/11/23): $151.01 Latest share count: 15.822 billion shares (source [PDF] p.2) Current market cap = price*shares = $2.4 trillion Reference is publicly quoted intraday high/low adjusted for any future stock splits, multiplied by latest share count as found in regulatory filings as of the relevant high/low date.
All I do is take loving care of this chart, tweak it, try this or that, and once every 3 months share it. For over a decade. Refined to near perfection (I know it's too busy, always been so).
And first time I share here, I get this one huge thing wrong. 😂
