All wars end in talks of some kind at some point. What Biden said is this one will too - he’s just giving Putin the opportunity to still be alive when ‘those talks’ occur. I think it’s 50-50 he makes it.
What told me the ‘end is near’ is a hundred something modern western battle tanks were promised (some already on way) and it was followed up with ‘and now let’s talk F16s - how many you want?’ … in the same week.
Yes document but also be careful…
You are my go to source for those 😂
She thought the black market for consumer goods won’t be an issue so long as few or no sanctions on those. She thought (and most on forum agreed) black market for ‘strategic goods’ already raging but fully sponsored by state. Plus invisible to us.
She said watch the street currency exchange - that will be the canary in the coal mine. So far canary is alive. 🤷♂️
@Nadinabbott @McPatrick
There is but I was on spaces recently where an econ researcher from Finland was highlighted. She also had roots back to cold war and agreed - there is always some smuggling and black market but it’s NOTHING like back in 1980s for either right now.
Two differences then and now (1) currency is still flooding in to Russia from commodity exports and (2) if you can get something in country you can sell it LEGALLY at whatever price you want
Good read … and if you don’t follow nadin you should
Ok folks, this is not a good thing if you are the Russian Federation. 👇👇👀💥 From January, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation begin selling Chinese yuan from the National Wealth Fund under the "budget rule" - by 3.2 billion rubles a day and 54.5 billion rubles a month (until February 6).
@McPatrick @Nadinabbott I keep going back to the same question I ask everyone including @Nadinabbott … “What do we know about the black market in Russia now?” Both for goods and for currency exchange. I am told by most who have better contacts than I do “It’s not bad there - now”
In my opinion when either or both becomes obviously bad we are close to a break point.
YMMV
And it was reported about two weeks ago Russian banks had transfers of 1.5T rubles out of country last quarter. 500B per MONTH.
Two quarters prior it was in the 500B rubles per QUARTER so 3X.
These are aggregate transfers from banks in Russia to institutions outside Russia (banks I presume) not net in/out balances so no idea if/which banks hurting. Nor did it say what these transfers were for. Assumed ‘purchases’ but of what?
More questions than answers.
Here are other things to watch from those numbers … 3.3T rubles worth of yuan in SWF and a reported sell rate of 55B rubles/month. That’s 5 years if my math is right. So is that mystery loss of oil exports (whatever it really is) covered by that? Or an additional burden?