🔴 Mortgage bonds = negative convexity: hurt whether rates rise or fall. Hedging amplifies the move. Educational, not advice.

🔴 CoreWeave: +112% revenue and a ~$99B backlog, but ~$24.9B of debt and 67% of revenue from Microsoft — verdict STRETCHED A framework, not advice.

🔴 Convenience yield: investors accept lower returns on Treasuries for safety + liquidity. Why the U.S. borrows so cheaply. Educational, not advice.

🔴 Cheapest-to-deliver: bond futures track the single cheapest deliverable bond, not the basket. A delivery rule steers a giant market. Educational, not advice.

🔴 The TED spread reads bank fear: bank borrowing minus risk-free. Blew out in 2008. A stress thermometer. Educational, not advice.

🔴 Commercial paper: short-term corporate IOUs that fund payroll. Froze in 2008 until the Fed stepped in. Rolling debt works, until it doesn't. Educational, not advice.

🔴 Yield curve control: the BOJ pinned 10-year yields near zero with unlimited buying. QE = quantity; YCC = price. The market eventually pushed back. Educational, not advice.

🔴 The Fed's Standing Repo Facility caps overnight-rate spikes — built after the 2019 repo scare. A circuit breaker for the plumbing. Educational, not advice.

🔴 The SLR forces banks to hold capital even against risk-free Treasuries — so they won't warehouse unlimited bonds. Why the plumbing clogs. Educational, not advice.

🔴 Big Tech free cash flow peaked ~$237B and is compressing as capex hit $416B (2025); the dive toward zero is a 2026 projection — verdict STRETCHED A framework, not advice.