> The moment you let the LLM write the tests without understanding them, you may as well just let it write the code directly.

I disagree. Having tests (even if the LLM wrote them itself!) gives the model some grounding, and exposes some of its inconsistencies. LLMs are not logically-omniscient; they can "change their minds" (next-token probabilities) when confronted with evidence (e.g. test failure messages). Chain-of-thought allows more computation to happen; but it doesn't give the model any extra evidence (i.e. Shannon information; outcomes that are surprising, given its prior probabilities).

> The scientific approach starts with a theory that does it's best to explain some phenomenon

At the risk of stretching the analogy, the LLM's internal representation is that theory: gradient-descent has tried to "explain" its input corpus (+ RL fine-tuning), which will likely contain relevant source code, documentation, papers, etc. to our problem.

I'd also say that a piece of software is a theory too (quite literally, if we follow Curry-Howard). A piece of software generated by an LLM is a more-specific, more-explicit subset of its internal NN model.

Tests, and other real CLI interactions, allow the model to find out that it's wrong (~empiricism); compared to going round and round in chain-of-thought (~philosophy).

Of course, test failures don't tell us how to make it actually pass; the same way that unexpected experimental/observational results don't tell us what an appropriate explanation/theory should be (see: Dark matter, dark energy, etc.!)