Christian Grose

@christiangrose
93 Followers
126 Following
25 Posts

Author; Editor; Teacher; Professor of Political Science & Public Policy; Academic Director, USC Schwarzenegger Institute. @dukeu @UofR. Fan of voting rights, political science, basketball.

christiangrose.com

It was an honor to learn that "Social Lobbying" won the 2023 Joseph Bernd award for the best paper published in @The_JOP at this month's #spsa2023 conference!

Kudos to my fantastic co-authors Pam Lopez, @sarasadhwani & Antoine Yoshinaka! https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/714923

Here's the description read at SPSA for award:

Social Lobbying | The Journal of Politics: Vol 84, No 1

We theorize that direct social lobbying—the meeting of a lobbyist and public official outside of a formal office—persuades officials to support publicly policies favored by interest groups. Social lobbying influences public officials because the social environment allows for greater receptivity to interest group messages. A randomized field experiment was conducted by a lobbying firm in a US state legislature. Legislators randomly assigned to be socially lobbied more frequently expressed public support for the interest group’s preferred policy than did legislators lobbied in their offices or not contacted by the lobbyist. In addition, an original survey of registered lobbyists was conducted in 10 US states demonstrating that social lobbying regularly occurs. Political elites are influenced by the social environment; interest group direct lobbying is influential when conducted in places not easily observed by the public.

The Journal of Politics

The research is consistent with earlier work (e.g., Carson, Crespin, Williamson; McGhee) that only looked at data through 2010 before there were a lot of new non-legislative methods of drawing districts implemented.

@mattnelsonphd's full article in @ps_polisci is available here, open access and ungated: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/independent-redistricting-commissions-are-associated-with-more-competitive-elections/00F260DCEB81B3BAC07D2A4ADBDA9CE0

Independent Redistricting Commissions Are Associated with More Competitive Elections | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core

Independent Redistricting Commissions Are Associated with More Competitive Elections

Cambridge Core

The article also shows that courts, politician commissions, and independent commissions all yield more competitive maps than legislative-drawn maps. This figure shows how much higher electoral competitiveness is in each relative to baseline of legislative drawn maps.

Published in @ps_polisci by @mattnelsonphd

New research: Elections are 2.25 times more likely to have competitive elections in districts drawn by independent redistricting commissions. About 20% of US House districts now drawn by ind. commissions.

Link to ungaged, open access article here: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/independent-redistricting-commissions-are-associated-with-more-competitive-elections/00F260DCEB81B3BAC07D2A4ADBDA9CE0

Independent Redistricting Commissions Are Associated with More Competitive Elections | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core

Independent Redistricting Commissions Are Associated with More Competitive Elections

Cambridge Core
@christiangrose In a similar vein I ran their pre-election (July-Nov) tweets through https://perspectiveapi.com/ and the anti-McCarthy bloc has average toxicity scores roughly double those of the typical House candidate.
Perspective API

Combatting toxicity online.

Others like Scott Perry (R-FL), Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), Eli Crane (R-AZ) had almost same margin of victory in '22 as partisan margins of districts, underperforming similarly situated Rs.

Takeaway: 'No on Kevin McCarthy' reps did worse in 2022 generals, relative to district partisanship.

6/6

There are a few ‘no on McCarthy’ who are not general-election locks for reelection in 2024. For instance, Rep. Lauren Boebert won district by +0.2 even though Trump won the district by more than 8 %-points.

5/6

The dynamics of the 2022 primaries differed though. Of the ‘no on McCarthy’ Republicans, more than 2/3 were endorsed by Donald Trump in the primary.

Of the ‘yes on McCarthy’ Republicans, only one-half were endorsed by Trump.

4/6

Members supporting McCarthy and those not supporting McCarthy are from very similar districts – most very GOP.

The underlying partisanship of districts, on average:

McCarthy yes votes: +20.4% Trump margin in 2020.

Not McCarthy: +20.9% Trump margin in 2020

3/6

House members voting yes for Kevin McCarthy had margins of victory +13 %-points better than underlying district GOP partisanship.*

The 20 members for Byron Donalds + 1 present (Rep. Spartz): Margins of victory were only +7.6 %-points more than distr. GOP partisanship.*

2/6