There’ll be a by-election for the Victorian state seat of Prahran, likely in early 2025, after the resignation of ex-Greens MP Sam Hibbins. Read my guide here https://www.tallyroom.com.au/57423
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Ben Raue
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Please try to enjoy each fact equally. Electoral analyst, find me at the Tally Room
I've added maps showing turnout, informal rate, the primary vote share for the winner and whether an incumbent was re-elected.
Generally turnout was higher south of the Yarra, and informal rates were higher where there was bigger ballots, in the north-west, Bayside and Casey.
Overall incumbents did well, both where they already represented single-member wards and where they were moving from multi-member wards, but a lot more incumbents decided to run again where wards didn't change.
39 of the 310 wards in these councils are yet to distributed their preferences, but in every ward the primary votes are counted.
A lot of these stats seem to revolve around ballot paper size - bigger ballots leads to more informal votes and smaller % for the winner.
Today's blog post sums up a bunch of statistics for the Victorian council elections, for 32 of the biggest councils which use single-member wards (excluding City of Melbourne). I'll be back tomorrow looking at the performance of the parties and results in each council. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/57307
A by-election will be held later this year for Pittwater after the sudden and scandalous resignation of Rory Amon, possibly on October 19 alongside the Epping and Hornsby by-elections. I've now prepared my guide for this by-election.
Today’s blog post takes aim at
John Graham launching a NSW JSCEM inquiry yesterday into increasing participation.
If we want to make our system more representative, it’s not really about maximising the number of votes cast. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/55642 #nswpol
You can also see it in this chart, which compares how many votes were lost by leakage out of the party ticket and how many were gained, throughout the distribution of preferences. Most of the cases where a party gained 0.2 or more of a quota were Labor.
So next up I looked at how many votes a party would gain in addition to its primary vote through the count, and average it out across all five electorates in each of the five elections. Labor does particularly well, in particular in 2018 and 2021.
Part of the explanation is that having a relatively even spread of votes amongst your candidates will help you more than having the vote focused on one popular candidate. But I suspect preferences can also play a role.