"The end justifies the means. But what if there never is an end? All we have is means."

Ursula K. Le Guin

#phohp

Hey if you're not sure whether or not your #vote matters, the research says: it probably doesn't matter & #voting doesn't work in the way that you probably think it does (if you think it does).

Here are a few papers. I'm too lazy to summarize so I'll just be doing pull quotes with the occasional explanation.

Economic elites have a substantial impact on US gov't policy while average citizens and interest groups have little to no influence.

"Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism"

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B

"Drawing on numerous in-depth surveys of members of the public as well as the largest database of interest organizations ever created—representing more than thirty-five thousand organizations over a twenty-five-year period—this book conclusively demonstrates that American democracy is marred by deeply ingrained and persistent class-based political inequality. The well educated and affluent are active in many ways to make their voices heard, while the less advantaged are not. This book reveals how the political voices of organized interests are even less representative than those of individuals, how political advantage is handed down across generations, how recruitment to political activity perpetuates and exaggerates existing biases, how political voice on the Internet replicates these inequalities—and more."

From the conclusion of chapter 11 in the book: "Compared to those well endowed with resources, especially business interests, economically disadvantaged constituencies--including economically disadvantaged groups defined by another characteristic, such as race or gender--have limited representation in pressure politics if they are represented at all.

Two notable findings in this regard bear repeating: first, unless they are members of a union, those whose work is unskilled have no occupational associations at all to represent their interests in Washington, and, second, although there are a small number of organizations that advocate for the poor, there is not a single organization that brings together recipients of means-tested government benefits such as Medicaid acting on their own behalf. Such gaps in organized interest representation imply that the voices in the heavenly chorus continue to sing with an upper-class accent."

https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691154848/the-unheavenly-chorus

This one's more a jab at electoralism than individual voting, but worth mentioning: campaigning--canvassing, phone banking, direct mail, advertising--has basically no effect on voter choice of candidate (in *general* elections, mind you).

"A massive new study reviews the evidence on whether campaigning works. The answer's bleak.

We argue that the best estimate of the effects of campaign contact and advertising on Americans’ candidates choices in general elections is zero. First, a systematic meta-analysis of 40 field experiments estimates an average effect of zero in general elections. Second, we present nine original field experiments that increase the statistical evidence in the literature about the persuasive effects of personal contact 10-fold. These experiments’ average effect is also zero."

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3042867

But what if you're the deciding vote!? Well...

"One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state-by-state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election."

Note that they try to save voting by rationalizing these odds lol "A probability of 1 in 10 million is tiny but, as discussed by Edlin, Gelman, and Kaplan (2007), can provide a rational reason for voting; in this perspective, a vote is like a lottery ticket with a 1 in 10 million chance of winning, but the payoff is the chance to change national policy and improve (one hopes) the lives of hundreds of millions, compared to the alternative if the other candidate were to win."

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf

Unfortunately, changing national policy is a bit more involved than that & often involves the legislature, too.

The next is a fairly damning paper that finds that voters do not affect policies by voting, but rather they elect policies. In other words, voters do not influence policy choices as much as they are *presented with choices*.

"There is little evidence that U.S. House members alter their positions in either direction in response to a large exogenous change in the probability of winning the election."

"We find that voters merely elect policies: the degree of electoral strength has no effect on a legislator’s voting behavior. For example, a large exogenous increase in electoral strength for the Democratic party in a district does not result in shifting both parties’ nominees to the left. Politicians’ inability to credibly commit to a compromise appears to dominate any competition-induced convergence."

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/final.pdf

Most of these sources were ripped from a yungneocon thread where you can read more: https://twitter.com/yungneocon/status/1268678644773371908?s=20&t=vrUGRmDGOenQX6XqQcfyPQ

Conclusion: go do a cold-weather distro with your closest friend or something! it's getting colder & some folks don't have the comfort of warmth. All we have is each other: act accordingly!

Had a really heartwarming time producing this piece for Transgender Day of Remembrance 💐🕯️🏳️‍⚧️

https://newnaratif.com/artists-respond-tdor-2022/