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Recovering Policy Wonk. Former SWE, SE, PM. Now VC.
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Total is also committed to expanding LNG - Total [0] and Oil India [1] are collaborating on a $20 Billion LNG extraction megaproject in Mozambique which was paused due to an Islamist insurgency during which Total-and-Oil India-funded forces allegedly committed massacres against civilians [2].

The US, France+India, and China have been competing over this project for decades.

These are businesses - no one cares about morals, only interests. And it is in France's interest to unlock these kinds of LNG projects.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mozambique-says-tota...

[1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-india-sees-resta...

[2] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gw119ynlxo

> Like actually tell us what you know so we can make useful decisions about our safety

"Americans abroad should follow the guidance in security alerts issued by the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate."

> It was one of the motivations behind the installation of long-range missile defense capabilities in Poland and Czechia in the late 2000s. Obama killed that program to appease Russia

This was sidestepped by allowing the Poland-SK defense partnership to kick off in 2013 [0] which was further entrenched in 2022 [1], and itself acted as a message against North Korea for acting in a similar manner with Iran [2]

[0] - https://www.president.pl/archives/bronislaw-komorowski/news/...

[1] - https://www.irsem.fr/storage/file_manager_files/2025/03/nr-i...

[2] - https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world/middleeast/29missil...

> The outcomes is very different from 2010

Not really. What we're seeing today is similar to what was being discussed in 2010 [0]. Heck, this failed missile attempt confirms capabilities that were being discussed in 2010 [1].

[0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2010/4/22/us-iran-strike-stil...

[1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world/middleeast/29missil...

US: Iran strike ‘still an option’

Officials say military intervention a “last resort” against Iran’s nuclear programme.

Al Jazeera

> hit a school

Already has in Azerbaijan [0] and attempted in Israel [1].

Most reporting is hyper-regional and somewhat kept under wraps (eg. Qatar and UAE are actively prosecuting leakers who are using Reddit, and have even taken control of Qatar's subreddit [2]) or reported on in regional languages.

I've found the information control in this conflict to be much more strategic/professional in comparison to what was is seen in Ukraine and Russia.

[0] - https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/06/aliyev-vows-attacks-on-a...

[1] - https://www.jns.org/news/israel-news/iranian-cluster-bomb-hi...

[2] - https://www.reddit.com/r/qatar/comments/1rt2fth/timeout/

Aliyev vows attacks on Azerbaijan 'will face our Iron Fist' after Iran drone strike

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev accused Tehran of committing an “act of terror” after Iranian drones attacked its exclave of Nakhchivan, injuring four civilians and damaging an airport building, opening the prospect of the Iran war consequences widening further towards the South Caucasus.

euronews

It still does/is. Most of what I'm seeing with Iran is similar to what was discussed back in the early 2010s.

There hasn't been significant churn in the NatSec space aside from political appointees, and core policymakers like Doshi, Maestro, Allison, Colby, and even Hill have worked with administrations irrespective of party affiliation.

> is that we have leaders who actively believed the downplaying of Irans military capabilities

We've been hinting about these capabilities for decades [0]. A lot of what is being brought up now is stuff a number of us touched on during the Obama years.

None of this is really hidden either - it would be brought up in think tanks and even undergrad classes if you attended a target program.

Civilian leaders have always had a hands-off approach to Defense and NatSec policy - once you show them how close to a polycrisis everything is they quickly defer responsibility. It's actually pretty similar to working in a corporate environment - it's all about managing upwards.

[0] - https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world/middleeast/29missil...

WikiLeaks Archive — Iran Armed by North Korea

American intelligence assessments say that Iran has obtained advanced missiles from North Korea based on a Russian design that are much more powerful than its other missiles.

The New York Times

Iran launched unsuccessful attack on UK's Diego Garcia

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yljdgwppzo

Foreign secretary denounces 'reckless Iran threats' after missiles fired at Diego Garcia

Iran reportedly fired two ballistic missiles at Indian Ocean base, but neither reached the target.

Yes, but almost the entire cluster of the NB cases are around Caraquet NB, which is completely surrounded by softwood plantations, and this has been a case they have been fighting for years.

Additionally, Industrial scale lumber harvesting uses magnitudes more Glyphosate than a home gardener or your local HOA.

The region in NB where this issue is occurring is the hub for NB's and North America's forestry industry. Over 40% of all harvested forest land in NB is treated with glyphosate [0].

Commercial forestry at JD Irving's scale largely died out in much of the US excluding Maine (where it is also has inordinate political power [1][2]).

[0] - https://www.conservationcouncil.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/0...

[1] - https://themainemonitor.org/maines-future-with-irving/

[2] - https://mainebiz.biz/article/the-irving-influence-a-look-at-...