There are no shares left.📚 Due Diligence - LemmyWorld
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/1362188
[https://lemmy.world/post/1362188] > This is an analysis of the available number
of shares through different filings and publicly available information. There
are no shares available unless they are borrowed from an institution or multiple
institutions sell their entire positions. The only thing is that borrowing more
shares will achieve nothing since the shares need to be sold by apes or there
will be an even bigger problem since apes will probably be buying. There is no
escape for any entity short GME, except maybe the first to close. > > First
let’s establish the number of shares in total and directly registered: > > From
the 2023 10-Q, there are approximately 304.7mm shares in total, and there are
approximately 228.1mm shares not directly registered by apes. > > We will start
with the number of shares not directly registered by apes, approximately 228.1mm
shares. First, we can remove Ryan Cohen’s shares, 36,847,842 shares. Next, we
will remove the known institutional holders, this amounts to 86,113,117 shares.
The total of these two groups is 122,960,959 shares. > > 228,100,000 -
122,960,959 = 105,139,041 > > There are only 105.1mm shares that are not owned
by RC, institutions, or directly registered to apes. Many of these do not
actually possess their shares though as about half the institutional shares are
publicly loaned out… While almost half of all the loans are from Vanguard as
almost their entire holdings of 25mm shares are loaned. > > Now, to estimate the
minimum amount of non-directly registered retail shares, we can take away the
retail broker non-votes disclosed in the last 8-K: > > There are 60.7mm broker
non-votes. > > 105,139,041 - 60,764,147 = 44,374,894 > > This leaves 44.37mm
shares that are available. That’s 14% of the total shares and the publicly
reported short interest is 55.16mm shares or 18% of the total: > > There are
55.16mm shares publicly reported short. > > 44,374,894 - 55,160,000 =
-10,785,106 > > This means that the maximum number of available shares is
-10.78mm shares. Yes, that is negative. > > Again, this is only using the
minimum number of shares of each group. There is obviously more retail than the
broker non-votes. There are two things that I wonder about the yearly vote. Did
any institutions or funds vote? If not, that would mean there is about 20mm more
shares for minimum retail. This does not include any retail whose broker does
not allow voting and provides no broker non-vote. If institutions did vote, why
are the vote tallies much less than the total shares? Are the results normalized
for the non-institutions (retail and insiders)? If so, then shorts are even more
impossibly screwed… If we assume that there are (mostly) only non-normalized
retail votes, then we can create a range within which the maximum actually lies.
There were 129,496,196 votes cast. We can remove the directly registered shares
and RC’s assuming he voted (lol). > > 129,496,196 - 76,600,000 - 36,847,842 =
16,048,354 > > -10,785,106 - 16,048,354 = -26,833,460 so maximum range of
[-26,833,460, -10,785,105] > > 76,600,000 + 60,764,147 + 16,048,354 =
153,412,501 > > With retail owning 153,412,501 shares. That’s nearly double the
institutions. Minimally there are at least the DRS count plus the non-votes
which is like 136.8mm shares. > > I do not see how millions of shares could be
trading every day. Institutions, mutual funds, and insiders have been increasing
their holdings. Around 1% of the total shares are being traded daily but around
-5% is maximumly available, unless retail is churning 1% everyday… However, that
does not make any sense because then the short interest would be decreasing as
shorts covered from retail selling. But they cannot cover, this is known if apes
are not selling and proven by more than two years of the same publicly reported
short interest. I think that there are multiple market participants that have
overleveraged swaps with these institutions (probably Vanguard (see 1. B. iii)),
and they are trading back and forth using the swaps to try to reduce their
maintenance burden. Ya know, just the thing that Bill Hwang/Archegos was doing
before blowing up… That is the only explanation that I could possibly conceive
and explains why the CFTC is so adamant on non-reporting swaps. > > In order for
the shorts to escape they would have to negotiate with several institutions to
sell their shares, but why would the institutions do that if they could sell
them a small fraction of those shares for the same (or larger) dollar amount
when the shorts blow up? Lending more shares just means that they won’t be able
to sell the shares themselves when the shorts inevitably blow up… > > And we’re
dumb money, lol. > > Sources: > > Form 10-Q for Gamestop Corp filed 06/07/2023 >
> Form 8-K for Gamestop Corp filed 06/21/2023 > > SEC.gov [http://SEC.gov] |
EDGAR | Company Filings > > GameStop Corp. (GME) Stock Price, News, Quote &
History - Yahoo Finance > > GameStop Corporation Common Stock (GME) Stock Price,
Quote, News & History | Nasdaq > > GME (NYSE) Gamestop Corporation - Class A
Stock - Short Interest, Short Squeeze, Borrow Rates (fintel.io
[http://fintel.io]) > > Posted via @Zuberi [https://lemmy.world/u/Zuberi]
Reddit-scrapper (Manual Reposts). PM me for suggestions.
