| Investment Journal | https://twotreessally.substack.com/ |
Mortgage-Backed Securities: What's the Current Investment Environment?
https://twotreessally.substack.com/p/the-changing-landscape-of-mortgage
The first in a series of journal posts exploring the current MBS landscape.
#MBS #CRE #CMBS #Investing #Investments #MBB #VMBS #SPMB #MORT #REM #REITS #realestateinvestment
Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Many references to a strong economy abound, Google Trends data shows that layoffs spiked in '22 and again in Jan '23
A similar lag as '09 would mean a peak unemployment rate around Sept or Nov of 2023
Equities' share of household net worth has been a reasonable predictor of 10-year stock market price returns
Currently at 19-20%, indicating expected 3.96% annual returns (range: -1.2% to 6.7%)
10 year Ts @ 3.8%
