T. Ryan Gregory

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383 Posts
Evolutionary biologist. Genome size, junk DNA, evolution education. Onions have 5x more DNA than you do. He/him.

As SARS-CoV-2 infection rates rise, a reminder that we are not powerless to reduce the chance of getting sick or of making others sick:

https://tryangregory.substack.com/p/how-to-be-and-make-others-sick-less

How to be (and make others) sick less often

No one enjoys being sick, not even with a common cold -- let alone with a serious flu, stomach bug, or COVID. No one wants to make others sick either. Fortunately, we have tools to fight viruses.

T. Ryan Gregory’s Substack
Covid for Doctors - Dr Nancy Malek

YouTube

Reminder: ventilation, air filtration, well-fitting N95 masks, and avoiding high risk exposure (e.g., indoor crowds in poorly ventilated spaces) are variant-proof measures.

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Current vaccines should still be effective against severe outcomes of infection with NB.1.8.1 or XFG, although it remains to be seen how those lineages evolve now that they are circulating among hosts on a global scale.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(25)00308-1/fulltext

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In terms of vaccines, the current versions target KP.2 aka JN.1.11.1.2 (Pfizer, Moderna) or JN.1 (Novavax). The most recent recommendation is that either they remain the same or update to target LP.8.1.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-picks-new-strain-fall-covid-vaccines-means-shot-rcna208726

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FDA picks a new strain for fall Covid vaccines. Here's what it means for your next shot.

The FDA picked the LP.8.1 Covid strain for the fall vaccines, fueling concerns that the shots may be limited to only the most at-risk Americans this fall.

NBC News

Also, these are the first two variants that show signs of really taking off and potentially causing a significant increase in infections over what has been a *relatively* "low" level since last summer/fall. They're already among the top variants globally.

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We haven't given a nickname to any variants since Pirola back in August 2023. So why these two now? A few reasons. One, Nimbus (NB.1.8.1) is not just another member of the "Pirola variant soup" that has dominated for nearly two years. It also includes XBB ancestry.

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Officially, these are all "Omicron" variants, but so are thousands of others that have evolved since the last Greek letter was given in November 2021. The reality is that "Omicron" is massively diverse -- far, far, far more so than all the other named variants combined.

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Nimbus (NB.1.8.1) has a more complex ancestry, including three recombination events. Its ancestors include both a chronic infection variant (Pirola) and other recombinants including descendants of XBB (relatives of Kraken).

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Stratus (XFG) is a recombinant of LF.7 x LP.8.1.2 -- both of which descendants of BA.2.86, which itself had evolved within someone infected for ~2 years.

LF.7 = JN.1.16.1.7 = BA.2.86.1.1.16.1.7

LP.8.1.2 = JN.1.11.1.1.1.3.8.1.2 = BA.2.86.1.1.11.1.1.1.3.8.1.2

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