Peter Wills

@PWillsCornwall
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5 Following
16 Posts
Commentary on Cornwall - its economy, society and environment.
Blog pagehttps://www.cornwallecon.com/blog

House prices - more than the building cost and land!
This short paper outlines an alternative approach to calculating the total value of dwellings, moving away from the simplistic two factor approach to propose a methodology based on four elements -
Building costs, house value (non-construction), basic land value and development land value.

https://www.cornwallecon.com/post/house-prices-more-than-the-building-cost-and-land

A few days ago, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, released a report ‘The Urgent Need to Build More Homes’. As the title suggests it supports building more homes. It points out the problems in housing but again repeats the the same old myth, that the planning system is holding back housing supply.

https://www.cornwallecon.com/post/another-flawed-report-from-the-free-market-coalition

Another flawed report from the free market coalition
A few days ago, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, released a report ‘The Urgent Need to Build More Homes’. Oddly enough It supports building more homes!

It blames planning for a lack of supply, but fails to acknowledge the real causes of high house prices and unaffordability. Not understanding why house values are more than the cost of building is a fundamental error a non-economist might make.

https://www.cornwallecon.com/post/another-flawed-report-from-the-free-market-coalition

Land use – some thoughts (1)
Land is an important resource – for food production, environmental services, landscape and community well-being, yet we lack a joined up policy framework. There is a bewildering array of designations, one effect of which is to regard large areas of land, many of which are considered of high importance to the local community or are valuable with regard to food production, as being of ‘lower value’ despite having an economic & intrinsic value.
https://www.cornwallecon.com/post/land-use-policy-objectives

The Government announced new housing targets on July 30th 2024. Overall the objective is for a total of 1.5 million over a four-year period or 375,000 per annum.

The vital question, ignored by commentators is do we need that level of housing growth? There is an assumption that we do, that it will result in cheaper housing and that all the current issues around need will be resolved. Yet the evidence suggests otherwise.

For a complete read see below:

https://www.cornwallecon.com/post/the-new-housing-targets-how-they-don-t-relate-to-reality-and-why

Conclusion
The CMA report is flawed, it does not evaluate the targets or the reports about housing need. It takes the views of those in the industry about planning without assessing the validity of them. It omits areas of interest regarding what developers build and why and the underlying problems facing people seeking to rent or buy. The CMA is not qualified to look at issues outside its remit.
The gaps
The CMA report fails to explore a number of issues. There is no mention of what dwellings are used for so that the impact of second homes and holiday lets on the housing market is ignored. The report does not examine the various factors that have resulted in rising house prices and rents neither does it look at the underlying reasons influencing households ability to rent or buy.
Analysis of the report suggests that it is flawed it:
Accepts the housing targets are valid without assessing them;
Assumes that as most reports favour more house building that is the correct approach;
Bases views on the planning system from organisations who automatically want to make it easier to build, despite no evidence to support their case.