My thoughts

Haru is truly an incredible rookie, and her booking reflects that Koda sees it too. She’s known to have been a fan before joining, but she’s also more than just a TJPW fan, she’s clearly a passionate wrestling fan in general, as exemplified by her choice of submission, a remarkably old school armbar for someone so young. And not only does she show measurable improvement and variety in every match, her wins all make sense in context. For instance, I had an issue with how Mizuki won her title off of Yuka, it felt more like Yuka losing in that one last flurry than Mizuki having a gameplan and beating the odds. Haru? Nah. She’s written like a thinker. She doesn’t win against people above her in the card cause she’s stronger, or more athletic, or more passionate, she wins cause she has an ace in the hole ready specifically for her opponent, because she lives and breathes wrestling. She reversed Wakana’s submission smoothly into her finisher, and she stunned Toga when she was setting up her Uranage after working her right arm (a key to all her signature offence) the whole match to snatch the win. The only other person who gets and uses fight psychology like this in TJPW, in my mind, is Misao, who happens to be my other fave in the company. Everyone else understands drama, they get both drama and building a match in a way that makes technical sense. I am exceedingly happy that Haru got her win without making Toga feel like any less of a threat, and that they’re even challenging together.

Yes, I have thought about this too much, why do you ask?

It rings a bit self absorbed with trying to explain herself initially but overall she’s at least made it very clear she’s unreservedly apologising for the action and that she knows she fucked up and what exactly the fuckup was, which is the checklist of a good apology.

8/10 as apologies go, assuming it’s genuine, otherwise she’s got a great PR team.

My takeaway I’d say we are clearly headed towards Aino vs Mizunami, kinda unexpected to see us get there this particular route but hey, I’ll take it.

Quarter finals

Yuki Aino beats Yuki Kamifuku Yuki Arai beats Suzume Zara Zakher beats Mizuki Ryo Mizunami beats Rika Tatsumi

Semifinal drawing

Ryo Mizunami will face Yuki Arai Yuki Aino will face Zara Zakher

My takeawayI was very surprised to see Zara win over Miu, this makes her a likely contender of the final in my eyes. Not as surprisingly, Yuki wins over Shoko, cementing her as the likely winner of the whole thing, especially after Pom got a 2 count out of Kamiyu with a shin kick. Haru had a great showing against Aniki, her passion is on full display recently and it’s great to see her come into her own as a performer despite being so young.

Round 2 resultsRika Tatsumi beats Toga Yuki Kamifuku beats Pom Harajuku Ryo Mizunami beats Haru Kazashiro Yuki Arai beats Wakana Uehara Zara Zakher beats Miu Watanabe Yuki Aino beats Shoko Nakajima

Now for my speculation:

Given the fact that the TPC leads to a shot in september-ish, I don’t expect whoever wins this to cap off Miu’s reign. It’s possible but it would end it at ~150 days and 4 defenses which is not suitable for the first person ever to kick out of one of Yamashita’s Skull Kicks.

So, with that said, I don’t expect the winner to be any of the rookies, repeated challengers, or outsider (which rules out Tatsumi, Nakajima, Zakher).

The following scenarios are in no particular order.

Scenario 1

Yuki Aino: She’s a good powerhouse, and they don’t have a lot of them, and Miu hasn’t fought one yet. She’s been kinda aimlessly filling in whatever gap they need her to fill, she was tag champ again for a hot minute with a different sibling-like figure (Ryo Mizunami) early this year, she’s put on a very aggressive matchup with Runa where she showed off a lot of fire, and Koda has tried to push her as a singles performer before. I could totally see this happening but I would never expect her to win the title off of Miu. Though I also didn’t expect her and Mizunami to win the Tag Title three-way, so what do I know.

Scenario 2

Mizuki: Former champion, also basically a non-entity since her reign was unceremonoiusly ended by Yamashita, could be poised as a serious threat, but ultimately I don’t expect her to win either with how her reign went.

Scenario 3

Yuki Kamifuku: She’s very over and has improved leaps and bounds from 2023 onwards, but she’s also currently a champion in 2 different promotions, which would complicate shit with putting over other talent while being the top champion (I expected her to win the IPC in her match against Arai last time they fought, but it’s clear they wanted the rookie lineup of champs for the final shot of the event). This on the one hand means you could have her at least go the distance and challenge, as that shows her more dominant than just losing in the tournament itself, on the other hand unless she wins the loss would be more high profile and public, so it really depends on what the agreements are between the promotions (if any). I would, however, absolutely die if I got to see Belt Collector Kamiyu live in October, so hope springs eternal that I’m wrong and it’s finally time to push Kamiyu, dammit.

Scenario 4

Ryo Mizunami: Much like Aino, she’s a big powerhouse who can go and can put on a fun match with anyone, and Miu still hasn’t been out-powered in her matches thus far. I wouldn’t expect her to win, as she’s not signed, but having her challenge for the belt could be a way to bridge-build with Sendai Girls Pro where she wrestles a lot, now that it’s also on Wrestle Universe.

Assorted scenarios I would be flabbergasted to see

Watanabe herself: That would be boring, please don’t. It wouldn’t be the first time but Miu is not an underdog and it would just suck to see the tournament wasted on somethin like this, especially since the only sensible choices for Miu to make would be re-threads: Yamashita, her eternal rival, or Tatsumi, her tag partner. Yuki Arai: She’s the current IP champion, she’s gonna go far but I don’t expect her to be even in the finals, it would be mental to have her get to the end and tease a possible belt unification considering how green she is, but she is a draw, so that’s not impossible, and Miu seems to be situated to become the next big thing, so they could unify the belts on her. Wakana Uehara: She’s extremely good at self-promotion and she’s clearly a future winner, might be they decide to already pull the trigger on her. Toga: Same as Wakana, though even less likely.