Sharing my simple checklist from a few years back in light of current events. Question six being especially relevant, again.
6. Can officials define what a successful end state looks like?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/17/6-questions-to-ask-before-starting-your-next-war/
Notable new study of how frequent generative AI usage hinders critical thinking.
"The findings revealed a significant negative correlation between frequent AI tool usage and critical thinking abilities, mediated by increased cognitive offloading."
The proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) tools has transformed numerous aspects of daily life, yet its impact on critical thinking remains underexplored. This study investigates the relationship between AI tool usage and critical thinking skills, focusing on cognitive offloading as a mediating factor. Utilising a mixed-method approach, we conducted surveys and in-depth interviews with 666 participants across diverse age groups and educational backgrounds. Quantitative data were analysed using ANOVA and correlation analysis, while qualitative insights were obtained through thematic analysis of interview transcripts. The findings revealed a significant negative correlation between frequent AI tool usage and critical thinking abilities, mediated by increased cognitive offloading. Younger participants exhibited higher dependence on AI tools and lower critical thinking scores compared to older participants. Furthermore, higher educational attainment was associated with better critical thinking skills, regardless of AI usage. These results highlight the potential cognitive costs of AI tool reliance, emphasising the need for educational strategies that promote critical engagement with AI technologies. This study contributes to the growing discourse on AI’s cognitive implications, offering practical recommendations for mitigating its adverse effects on critical thinking. The findings underscore the importance of fostering critical thinking in an AI-driven world, making this research essential reading for educators, policymakers, and technologists.
Thoughtful excerpt of a new MIT Press book containing 101 maxims for creatives.
"The human brain is hardwired for pattern recognition."
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/eliminate-the-nonessential-and-other-advice-for-artists/
NBER on women's integration in military:
"We find that integrating women into previously all-male units does not negatively affect men’s performance or behavioral outcomes, including retention, promotions, demotions....However, there is a wedge between men's perceptions and performance. The integration of women causes a negative shift in male soldiers' perceptions of workplace quality, with the effects driven by units integrated with a woman in a position of authority."
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
In the annals of Cold War nuclear-exchange wargames, this one was new to me. Some mazing reporting and vital lessons to be learned from William Langewiesche.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/02/magazine/nuclear-strategy-proud-prophet.html
"The aspects of things that are most important for us are hidden because of their simplicity and familiarity. (One is unable to notice something — because it is always before one's eyes.) The real foundations of his enquiry do not strike a man at all. Unless that fact has at some time struck him."
--Ludwig Wittgenstein, Philosophical Investigations (1953), p.129.
"Instinctively, people love to codify things, and make them numerical, and turn them into optimization problems with a single right answer. Because the second you acknowledge ambiguity, you now have to exercise choice. If you can pretend there’s no ambiguity, then you haven’t made a decision, you can’t be blamed, you can’t be held responsible."
Some powerful insights in this essay: https://behavioralscientist.org/are-we-too-impatient-to-be-intelligent/
There are things we need to deliberately and consciously slow down for our own sanity and for our own productivity. If we don't ask the question about what those things are, we might get things terribly, terribly wrong.
Fascinating deep-dive on the Monty Hall Problem. Or, why 90% of people make bad probability decisions.
NEW YORK—Calling out the unsustainable pace at which historic events seemed to be occurring, local man Brad Gifford told reporters Monday that important news stories were now happening faster than he could generate uninformed opinions about them. “Look, I’m trying my hardest to scrape together confused takes…
