It needs to be understood that there is a growing divide between Vladimir Putin and the rest of Russia’s elite over the War in Ukraine. They didn’t care what Putin did as long as the Russian people weren’t at their throats. Of course, with the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian people have become increasingly aware of their situation, thus turning them against Putin, and by extension, Russia’s elite. It’s for that reason that they’ve most likely been looking for an alternative to Putin that wouldn’t act out on his own, while still maintaining the pre-war status quo.

Yevgeny Prigozhin has been posturing for weeks about the Russian Army’s incompetence on the battlefied. It was clear that this was to try and position himself as the alternative president that Russia’s elites were looking for, since he could claim tangible victories on the battlefield, thus making him seem like he should be in charge, and allowing the war to continue, thus making it seem like Putin just needs to be removed, and the Russian people’s anger will be quelled. The mistake I made was thinking that Prigozhin would wait until Russia was experiencing wide social unrest to sweep in and have the oligarchs hand him the Russian presidency, but I was wrong.

The situation for the Russian army in Ukraine has degenerated to the point where the average Russian soldier has become disillusioned with the higher command, and Prigozhin, seeing this opportunity, decided to act and seize the Russian state for himself, with the regular Russian soldiers letting him through under the belief that he will be better than the higher command.

Of course, assuming Prigozhin does take power, his next task will be to prove humself to the Russian people, which will prove difficult given the chaotic situation in which he seized power in the first place. His most likely choices will mean either; ending the invasion and facing all the fallout from Putin starting the invasion in the first place, thus potentially drawing the further ire of the Russian people, *OR*, continuing the invasion to try and deliver tangible results on the battlefield, and raising the Russian people’s ire when those results don’t come. That’s not even considering the number of factions that might rise up in the chaos after Prigozhin seizes power, potentially threatening his new regime further.