MMW: The ICJ will eventually find Israel not guilty of genocide, and there will be a big meltdown because of it - Lemmy.World
Before I start, I just want to say that this opinion is based on what I think
will actually happen rather than what I think should or wish will happen.
Anyways, there are two parts to this prediction. Part 1: The ICJ will find
Israel not guilty of genocide. I firmly believe that the International Court of
Justice (ICJ), is going to rule against South Africa’s claims because Israel has
a very good defense case. There are few reasons why I think this is the case: 1.
The ICJ exists to resolve disputes between nations. In this case, there’s no
dispute between South Africa and Israel, therefore, Israel could, and probably
will, argue that the ICJ has no jurisdiction over the Gaza war. 2. They could
argue that South Africa cannot prove intent, since that’s a very big part of
what makes a genocide, well, a genocide. In order for something to be a
genocide, there needs to be clear policy that shows there’s an intent to
exterminate. Like the Turks wanted to do with the Armenians or ISIS with the
Yezidis or the Nazis with the Jews. There’s no such policy in Israel. Unless,
South Africa somehow managed to get hold of some secret Israeli documents
unknown to the public, then they probably have nothing more than random
statements of random fringe politicians who don’t make decisions on the war.
South Africa could, and probably will, provide proof of the Israeli government’s
negligence, but not genocidal intent. If there’s no intent, then there’s no
genocide case. 3. They could acknowledge the high death toll, but also argue
that it is the result of Hamas using civilians infrastructure to launch attacks.
They don’t need to prove it to be the case every single time, but if they could
prove it to be a systematic pattern, then it could offer grounds to disprove the
claims of genocidal intent while at the same time explain why the death toll is
high. 4. Israel could make a strong case that it is complaint with international
law, at least within the context of Gaza. Since Israel was attacked first,
Israel could point out that it is fighting a war of self defense in according
with the UN charter (chapter 7, article 51), and therefore is not actually
breaking international law. Not only that, but Israel could also argue that it
has been complying with the provisional measures asked for by the ICJ by
allowing for humanitarian aid to go in, launching vaccine campaigns to prevent
disease, sending them reports, and so on. If they can show that they are largely
complaint, even if the results are questionable, then it’ll take a lot of air
out of South Africa’s case. 5. The ICJ preliminary report had a small, but
potentially powerful clause, that demanded that Hamas and other armed groups to
immediately and unconditionally release all the hostages… which they have not
done until very recently, and they still haven’t been able to return the bodies
of some of the dead hostages. Israel could use this clause to demonstrate how
Hamas and the other Palestinian groups in Gaza hold contempt for the law and
their agreements which led Israel to conduct more military operations and
therefore prolong the war. Whether you agree or disagree with any of this is
irrelevant, the point is that this case isn’t as lopsided against Israel as
people think it is. Just as a reminder, Israel usually doesn’t participate in
international tribunals. If they knew that they were in the wrong, then they
simply wouldn’t participate… like Russia. Russia knows what it’s doing in
Ukraine is wrong, and therefore they straight up refused to show up to the
proceedings against them. Israel agreeing to break their norms and participate
should signal that they’re confident in their chances of getting a favorable
outcome. Therefore, I’m betting that there’s a very good chance that ICJ will
favor Israel. Which brings me to… Part 2: There is going to be a big meltdown
from the ruling. For whatever reason, everybody who’s anti-Israel and/or
pro-Palestine thinks that the ICJ will rule exactly the way they want it to,
which is that the ICJ will rule in favor of South Africa and find Israel guilty
of committing genocide. They’re all eagerly waiting for this outcome as if it
was inevitable… but what if it never comes? Now this is going to be
controversial on Lemmy, but I see the anti-Israel/pro-Palestine crowd as being
very MAGA like… which is ironic because MAGA tends to be pro-Israel but I
digress. The similarity that I see is in how they both react to seeing results
they don’t like. MAGA has a fun philosophy to dealing with losing. Whenever they
win a court case or an election or whatever, then they will accept the results
and their prior proceedings as legitimate, fair, and accurate. However, whenever
they lose a court case, election, whatever then they’ll reject the results and
cry that the prior proceedings were unfair, corrupt, and rigged against them. I
expect a similar reaction from the anti-Israel/pro-Palestine crowd. If the
ruling comes out as I expect it to then we’re going to witness a 180 from the
anti-Israel/pro-Palestine crowd. They’re currently very pro ICJ and argue in
favor of its authority and legitimacy because they think it’ll provide them with
the outcome they seek. When that doesn’t happen, they’ll immediately going to
reject the results and call the ICJ corrupt, rigged, incompetent, and
compromised by Zionists. I cannot imagine ANY scenario where these people will
actually accept the results of the ICJ ruling if it comes out in favor of Israel
regardless of validity. You can be sure that they’ll meltdowns of cataclysmic
proportions on the internet, you’ll see frequent acts of vandalism on the court
itself in the Hague, the judges who served over the case being attacked, and so
on. Now you could argue that the same could happen the pro-Israel/anti-Palestine
crowd if the ICJ rules against Israel, and you would probably be right. I expect
similar reactions either way, however, I just doubt that the actual ruling will
be in favor of South Africa.
