Brian Bartholomew

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Batteries, power markets, niche memes. Decarbonizing the grid @REVRenewables. Usual disclaimers.

twitter: @BPBartholomew | threads: @BPBart

Tropical Storm Hilary x California wholesale power

In today's newsletter, some quick hits on:

- Tropical Storm Hilary battering California solar production
- Diminishing electricity imports make CAISO more expensive, less reliable
- ERCOT on course for its hottest and most expensive summer month ever
- To be continued: the changing face of ERCOT volatility

https://themeritorder.substack.com/p/weekend-package-heat-spikes-ercot

Weekend Package: Heat spikes ERCOT prices, Tropical Storm Hilary suppresses CAISO solar

Tropical Storm Hilary batters California solar Far from the most important effect of Tropical Storm Hilary, even in wholesale power, but the uncharacteristic California summer storm is suppressing CAISO solar well below typical August levels. The storm is also muting California electricity demand

The Merit Order

Spicy ERCOT day-ahead power prices will top out over $2,000/MWh today amid tight forecast supply and potential record-setting electricity demand.

https://themeritorder.substack.com/p/ercot-power-prices-test-summer-highs?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=mastodon

ERCOT power prices test summer highs amid record temps, tight supply

Sunset to test Texas grid today as demand soars, solar wanes

The Merit Order

Texas electricity generation for the next few days.

Natural gas doing the heavy lifting, especially in peak periods, but additional generation from wind and solar continue making it possible to keep the lights on when demand is highest.

Texas faces another week of potentially record-setting electricity demand, with forecasts through Friday set to test all-time highs.

Wind and solar should continue to support reliability and keep a lid on prices, especially towards the back half of the week as renewable output is forecast to approach record levels.

Like it or not, this is what peak summer performance looks like
California's famous duck curve, updated for 2023. CAISO now routinely flirts with near-zero net loads on the sunniest spring days.
Nearly 40% of US electricity was emissions-free in 2022

Renewables now produce 20% of all utility-scale generation

The Merit Order

The US Produced More Electricity from Renewables than from Coal in 2022

https://themeritorder.substack.com/p/the-us-produced-more-electricity

The US produced more electricity from renewables than from coal in 2022 (Chart)

Coal's terminal decline continues; wind and solar generation soar

The Merit Order

US coal power continued its terminal decline in 2022. In spite of elevated natural gas prices, coal-fired generation plunged back towards its lowest levels in half a century.

https://open.substack.com/pub/themeritorder/p/growing-greening-gassifying-evolving

Growing, Greening, Gassifying: Evolving US Electricity Generation in Seven Charts

Generation up, emissions down, coal and gas switching

The Merit Order