Here's my prediction for mastodon:

* wave of new users, most will go back to twitter
* enough will stay to keep things interesting and development will proceed apace.
* Valid feedback will be iterated on. instance-independent Identity, federated search, instance migration, performance tuning and bug fixes, etc.
* As it matures, it will grow.

Ultimately, a focus on keeping the community welcoming and easing the barriers to adoption will pay off.

@chriseppstein that is pretty much what has been going on for the past year or so.
@inmysocks I believe it. It shows in the level of polish already present. New tech takes ~5 years to go mainstream. it's practically an invariant.
@chriseppstein I wouldn’t mind if it stayed smaller (way smaller) than twitter to be honest
@chriseppstein My hope is that the "barriers to entry" on running your own node for family/friends goes *way* down and we get a shitload more of those...
(and I'm guilty of "being lazy and not doing that" I know)
@chriseppstein I hope you're right - I'm more skeptical.