North Atlantic #hurricanes rank among the costliest #NaturalHazards. Their impacts have increased over recent decades and are projected to rise further with #ClimateChange.
Yet catastrophe models used in (re)insurance are still primarily calibrated to historical climate with limited integration of near-term climate signals.
Using reanalysis and climate model #data, they quantify hazard changes for near-present (+1.2°C) and future (+2°C) climates relative to the historical baseline (1980–2025).
The results? – potentially substantially higher landfall and loss increases under future (+2°C) climate than some commonly used assumptions, highlighting the critical but often overlooked role of frequency changes in #hurricane risk assessment: https://journalofcrr.com/research/04-03-liu-et-al/
Catastrophe Risk & Resilience