Initially looked like a close thing until the Reform candidate appeared on Question Time and demonstrated he's thick as shit. Now Labour look likely to win.
Who knows what happens then? Ideally Burnham would accept a cabinet post and we'd get on with governing. More likely, Burnham will insist on Starmer leaving in a year or so. Less likely, he launches an immediate leadership challenge — possibly even before the Mayoral byelection.
The worst outcome imho will be mass cabinet resignations over the weekend. Nandy is considered most likely to go first, perhaps ironically given how pants she's been at DCMS.
All this is very bad and virtually guarantees we'll be in for another period like the 14 years of Tory rule, though much worse with Reform, but c'est la vie. This is who our party is.
Comedy option: faced with an impasse, Starmer calls an election.
Obviously that shouldn't happen — even the worst Labour government is better than any alternative, and this is one of the best — but golly, that's the space my petty heart is in.
Rebellious back benchers unconcerned with the responsibilities of government, who rode Starmer's coat tails into the House amid his restoration of the party (that they also grumbled about), far too comfortable with their precarious seats. Why not put the matter to the country?
I guess all this will become more sensible from tomorrow. If Burnham has a landslide, or beats the combined Reform+Restore vote, or the combined Restore+Reform+Tory vote then maybe things will change.
Conversely, if he wins more slimly, perhaps all this talk of upending government will quiet down.
I'm likely to be sad at the state of my party no matter what happens, but I'm hoping praying that no route emerges for Prime Minister Streeting to occur.
@rhys Burnham accepting cabinet position without demand for Starmer to step down in 4-6 months will tank his personal approval ratings. especially in light of Healey & Carns resignations, and now with U-16 social media bans: he'll be bound to Starmer's high disapproval ratings (whether that's deserved or not is a separate question).
at this point, the most gracious option for Labour and Starmer personally would be smooth Trudeau –> Carney version of transition, but to Andy.
the magnificent rhys
铁山靠
ilias 🏴☠️💙💛