Nafnlaus 🇮🇸 🇺🇦Tesla has actual fundamentals. They're just not as high as the current #$TSLA valuation. But it's impossible to argue that it wasn't deeply undervalued in the 2018-2019, when people were relentlessly ranting about how the company was overvalued.
Same story with SpaceX.
There's legitimate business there. Legitimate growth business. And Starlink is a cash-printing machine. And you can't just assume "50% annual revenue growth" is unreasonable when Anthropic has been growing 10x/yr for 3 1/2 years running.
But *overall*, it's still way too optimistic.
Most of the valuation is based on X.AI. MechaHitler is so far behind that it usually doesn't even get listed on benchmarks against the major competitors, and it's a very unpopular place for attracting talent. They're even leasing out their compute rather than using it themselves.
It's not impossible that AI will become as big of a market as they're forecasting, and that they'll get as big of a fraction as they're assuming. But both aspects of that are quite optimistic.
(It's important to realize that the arguments against #$TSLA in 2018-2019 - that EVs would not become that big of a market, that Tesla wouldn't get such a big percentage, that Tesla couldn't get COGS down that fast/that far, that customers would hate them, that they were going bankrupt - were wrong.)
Also ignoring Tesla Energy, which has become massive and is en route to rival EVs.
But today the market is ignoring how much worse the fundamentals *have* gotten. How Musk's antics and Tesla's neglect of automotive has led them to fall behind the Chinese. Value is based on FSD and robots.
Neither of which are actual mature things, they're just speculative, with timelines that Musk has been consistently, hilariously wrong about. If it were a startup, nobody would value these things anywhere *remotely* near the value they assign them within Tesla. Why give Musk the credulity on them?