Brian Kelley
Hmm...this morning's 06z NAM 3K run is showing a line of storms moving through Philly and South Jersey as early as 11 am EDT this morning — at the same time the model is showing marginal conditions for an isolated tornado around the region. #njwx #phillywx
Jun 12 at 11:23amIceCubesApp
Show threadBrian Kelley1d ago
Hmm...only the 09z RRFS seemed to get these showers developing near the NY/NJ border this morning. And it also shows an isolated cell in South Jersey along with some 0.5 SIGTOR values late this morning. Be alert for things to get active around here sooner rather than later today. #njwx #phillwx
Show threadBrian Kelley1d ago
Well, the 12z NAM 3K lost any storms by late morning today and shows just a broken line moving through Central Jersey to the coast around 5 p.m. It keeps heavier stuff north and south of NJ. Not really buying that. Meso models are struggling with today’s setup. #njwx #phillywx
Show threadBrian Kelley1d ago
Very odd…today should be a more widespread severe event than yesterday around here because of the dynamics and the front coming through, but the CAMs are really not seeing that at all, even on the latest 12z guidance. #njwx #phillywx