Tara MoriartyCanadian COVID Forecast: Jun 6 - Jun 19, 2026
SEVERE: none
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
MODERATE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
About 1 in 345 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
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Notre aperçu national en français : bsky.app/profile/mori...
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WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?
About 1 in 345 people in Canada is currently infected (99,000-168,000 infections/week).
The most recent estimate for the United States (June 1) is 1 in 277 infected (www.pmc19.com/data/index.php).
Infections, hospitalizations and deaths are stable or decreasing in all provinces.
Expected excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Canada is MODERATE (3%, Forecast score 3).
Infections in Canada this week are expected to result in 530 hospitalizations, 110 premature deaths (people who die at least 1 year earlier than they would without COVID) and 4,200 new long COVID cases serious enough to limit daily life activities.
About 2.1% of people in Canada are infected and/or experiencing life activity-limiting long COVID this week.
The estimated cost of hospitalizations from this week's infections in Canada is $11.7M.
Hospitalizations are expected to require 0.8% of Canada's staffed hospital beds for three weeks (CIHI: average duration of COVID hospitalizations).
www.cihi.ca/en/covid-19-...
CONFIDENCE OF ESTIMATES
The average confidence interval since Dec 5/21 is -/+6.5%.
The confidence interval for estimates this week is -/+26.1%.
The confidence interval remains broader than the interval for 2022-2024 because Quebec stopped reporting survey-based surveillance in early 2025.
In addition, PHAC now only publishes province-specific testing data once every 4 weeks instead of weekly.
It is not clear if this is because many provinces report COVID-19 data infrequently if at all during summer months.
PHAC obtains testing data directly from testing labs in each province instead of from provinces.
It is not clear if these data are also not available from testing labs during the summer, or if provinces don't give permission for data sharing during months when other reporting is limited.
Average annual infection prevalence, infection fatality and hospitalization rates for Canada from 2022-2024 are similar to UK data from ONS and Ward et al 2024 (prevalence 1.00X UK, IFR 1.01X UK, IHR 1.01X UK; p>0.05).
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The real-time infection hospit...
The real-time infection hospit...
The real-time infection hospitalisation and fatality risk across the COVID-19 pandemic in England - Nature Communications
The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varied over the course of the pandemic due to factors such as changes in variant characteristics and population immunity from previous infection or vaccination. Here, the authors estimate infection hospitalisation and infection fatality rates in England over time from the start of the pandemic until March 2023.
Based on population age structure and health, and hospital capacity, Canada's population IFR is expected to be 1.01-1.05X the UK population IFR.
@mswcreations.bsky.social is having 2 virtual gatherings for COVID-conscious women and gender-diverse folx on June 18th and June 24th.
Join here, it's PWYC: medicinesongwoman.com/events
Upcoming Public Events with Br...
Upcoming Public Events with Br...
COVID outbreak risk remains in #ONhealth hospitals without layers of protection.
Universal masking in ALL areas of #Ontario hospitals is essential for safe healthcare access.
Let regional decision-makers know this is a priority.
@[email protected]
Take action: safecare.initiative.works
Safe Care Ontario
Safe Care Ontario
The regional Canadian COVID forecast can be found here: bsky.app/profile/mori...
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For links to resources, explanations of the forecast methods, and past forecasts, please see our pinned 🧵 here: bsky.app/profile/mori...
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Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends.
The next forecast will be posted on June 22nd, 2026
Thanks to @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] and @[email protected] for data input, graphics, and translation.
Thanks to the whole COVID-19 Resources Canada team for weekly feedback and for keeping all our work going.
