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Notre aperçu national en français : bsky.app/profile/mori...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/post/3mmsacwfr4c2y

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK? About 1 in 314 people in Canada is currently infected (111,000-185,000 infections/week). The most recent estimate for the United States (May 18) is 1 in 275 infected (www.pmc19.com/data/index.php).

Infections, hospitalizations and deaths are stable in most provinces.

Expected excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Canada is MODERATE (4%, Forecast score 4).

Infections in Canada this week are expected to result in 500 hospitalizations, 110 premature deaths (people who die at least 1 year earlier than they would without COVID) and 4,200 new long COVID cases serious enough to limit daily life activities.

About 2.1% of people in Canada are infected and/or experiencing life activity-limiting long COVID this week. The estimated cost of hospitalizations from this week's infections in Canada is $10.5M.

Hospitalizations are expected to require 0.8% of Canada's staffed hospital beds for three weeks (CIHI: average duration of COVID hospitalizations). www.cihi.ca/en/covid-19-...

CONFIDENCE OF ESTIMATES The average confidence interval since Dec 5/21 is 6.6%.

Average annual infection prevalence, infection fatality and hospitalization rates for Canada from 2022-2024 are similar to UK data from ONS and Ward et al 2024 (prevalence 1.01X UK, IFR 1.01X UK, IHR 1.01X UK; p>0.05). www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The real-time infection hospit...

Based on population age structure and health, and hospital capacity, Canada's population IFR is expected to be 1.01-1.05X the UK population IFR.

FOCUS ON REGIONS: We are behind in posting reporting data from some provinces. We will resume the Focus on Regions section next forecast.

@mswcreations.bsky.social is having a virtual Full Moon circle for COVID-conscious women and gender-diverse folx on Wednesday June 3rd, 2026. Join here, it's PWYC: medicinesongwoman.com/events

Upcoming Public Events with Br...

COVID outbreak risk remains in #ONhealth hospitals without layers of protection. Universal masking in ALL areas of #Ontario hospitals is essential for safe healthcare access. Let regional decision-makers know this is a priority. @[email protected] Take action: safecare.initiative.works

Safe Care Ontario

The regional Canadian COVID forecast can be found here: bsky.app/profile/mori...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/post/3mmsaaty5lc2y

For links to resources, explanations of the forecast methods, and past forecasts, please see our pinned 🧵 here: bsky.app/profile/mori...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/post/3lhcg4t5ra22t

Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends. The next forecast will be posted on June 8th, 2026

Thanks to @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] and @[email protected] for data input, graphics, and translation.

Thanks to the whole COVID-19 Resources Canada team for weekly feedback and for keeping all our work going.