John Poole

Today AP News reports 3.8% inflation surge.

#SocialSecurity #COLA is based on CPI-W averages from July, August, and September — not the full year. Inflation after September doesn’t affect January benefits until the next cycle. Given current payout levels, even a 0.1% COLA difference changes annual Social Security spending by roughly $1.5 billion. Small percentages become very large federal budget numbers.

Could the CPI-W be manipulated month-to-month to cause Jul-Sep to be lower?

May 13 at 3:39pmWeb
Show threadJohn Poole5d ago

So it's to the Fed's benefit to report high values early in the year, then announce the fight against inflation is winning in July and report the lower numbers for July-Sept to set the COLA. The Trump administration's predilection to massage economic data is proven.

But the policy of 3 months only is not unique to the current administration. I wonder if there is history showing downtrends in the 3rd quarter.